Weekly Technical Outlook – Oil, USDJPY, AUDUSD

Middle East negotiations, Trump’s Hormuz plan in focus → Oil

Oil prices are easing after President Donald Trump unveiled the so‑called “Project Freedom” plan, aimed at partially reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The proposal involves US efforts to guide stranded vessels through the waterway. However, the absence of a broader US-Iran peace agreement continues to underpin prices above $100. Adding to supply concerns and casting doubt on the effectiveness of Trump’s plan, a tanker was reportedly struck in the Strait, highlighting ongoing security risks. For now, shipping flows through Hormuz remain constrained, with no clear endgame to the ten‑week blockade or to stalled US-Iran negotiations.

As a result, the crude market remains tightly supported by persistent supply disruptions and elevated geopolitical uncertainty. Unless there is a clear and sustained resolution that restores normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices are likely to remain elevated, with risks still tilted to the upside.

Technically, oil opened with a bearish gap on Monday but has held intraday gains, attracting dip‑buying interest around the 103.00 area amid mixed signals. Ongoing geopolitical risks, together with a modestly firmer US dollar on revived Fed tightening bets and the announced OPEC+ output increase, warrant caution before confirming that the recent pullback from the three‑week high set last Thursday has fully run its course.

Intervention risk, US nonfarm payrolls → USDJPY

USDJPY plunged nearly five figures last Thursday, sliding from a near two‑year high at 160.70 to a two‑month low around 155.50 on FX intervention, before partially rebounding to reclaim ground near 156.80. The key question now is whether further intervention follows, particularly as Japan enters the Golden Week holiday period, when thinner liquidity could amplify volatility.

While intervention risk and headline‑driven moves are likely to dominate early in the week, attention later shifts to US economic data, culminating in April nonfarm payrolls on Friday. This will bring monetary‑policy expectations back into focus, especially after the Fed’s latest minutes highlighted growing divisions over the timing of rate cuts. Consensus forecasts a sharp hiring slowdown, with payrolls seen at +62k versus +178k in March, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%, just below the FOMC’s 2026 projection.

Stronger‑than‑expected data could quickly reopen upside risks for USDJPY by reinforcing yield‑differential support, potentially pushing the pair back toward last week’s highs near 160.00. Conversely, weak data could trigger renewed downside pressure, particularly if accompanied by additional intervention signals. Technically, USDJPY remains capped below the 100‑day SMA near 157.50, though it has rebounded above its long‑term ascending trendline, which now offers support. Momentum indicators remain mixed, with the MACD and RSI easing in negative territory, suggesting consolidation rather than a fresh acceleration lower.

RBA hike expectations → AUDUSD

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is set to announce its next policy decision on Tuesday and is widely expected to deliver a third consecutive 25bp rate hike, taking the cash rate to 4.35%, with cash‑rate futures pricing around a 75% probability. Price pressures remain elevated, with Australia’s major retailers warning that the Iran conflict is driving higher fuel and raw‑material costs. Trimmed‑mean CPI remains sticky well above the RBA’s 2–3% target, while internal forecasts point to a positive output gap, signalling tight capacity conditions. The upcoming RBA Statement on Monetary Policy will be closely watched for updated inflation and growth guidance, though the base case remains supportive for the Australian dollar.

AUDUSD is consolidating bullishly above 0.7200, near its highest level since June 2022, after touching that zone last week. Hawkish RBA expectations continue to underpin the pair, while geopolitical risks cap upside momentum. With bulls showing some hesitation ahead of Tuesday’s decision, the market is likely to await a clear catalyst to break resistance near 0.7220. On the downside, the rising medium‑term trendline around 0.7185 remains key support. The upward‑sloping 20‑day SMA and constructive momentum indicators suggest the broader bullish bias remains intact, albeit within a cautious wait‑and‑see phase.