Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, GOLD, US100

US PCE & Tokyo CPI --> USDJPY

Even though Kevin Warsh has argued against traditional inflation tracking, characterizing the central bank’s closely watched core PCE index as a "rough swag," investors will remain focused on upcoming releases. This includes July’s reading, due on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT, at least until the Fed officially clarifies its data-dependent framework.

Expectations point to a steady 3.3% y/y headline, with monthly growth nudging up to 0.2%. Despite recent CPI softness, July's FOMC minutes confirmed policymakers are keeping a hawk eye on tariff risks, with markets pricing in a 25bps rate hike before year-end. An upside PCE surprise could fast-track those rate hike bets, offering USDJPY the momentum needed to reclaim its 20-day EMA and challenge 159.50. Downside cushion remains firm above the 200-day EMA at 157.90, with 158.50 offering immediate support.

To spark a sustained USDJPY sell-off, a hawkish shift from the Bank of Japan is essential. This puts Friday’s Tokyo CPI release, which is expected to cool to 1.7% y/y from 1.9%, firmly in the spotlight. Stronger-than-expected readings would bolster the case for a September BoJ rate hike, pushing the pair back down to test the pivotal 157.00–157.90 support zone, where a clean breakdown opens the door toward 155.00.

Jackson Hole Symposium --> GOLD

Market attention shifts to the Jackson Hole Symposium on Thursday, headlined by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech on Friday. Warsh is expected to avoid explicit policy commitments, choosing instead to deemphasize forward guidance and speak more about AI-driven productivity gains.

Still, any commentary on the ballooning fiscal debt, Treasury-Fed dynamics, and the Fed’s balance sheet could take center stage after the US Treasury department’s bond intervention last week.

Overall, any shift in bond yield volatility is expected to directly feed into precious metals momentum. Technically, Gold’s recent rally cleared its 200-day SMA and 4,570 resistance, putting April’s high near 4,770 in sight. While overbought indicators hint at near-term consolidation, a clean breakout above 4,770 opens a blue-sky path toward 5,000. Adding fuel to the fire, potential new US sanctions on Iran keep geopolitical risk premiums bid.

Nvidia Q2 earnings --> US100

The last full week of August could be particularly important for global stock markets, with Nvidia’s Q2 earnings due on Wednesday after the market close. The AI giant is expected to report a staggering 97% increase in revenue to $91.7 billion, with data centers accounting for the bulk of sales. Earnings per share could also nearly double year-on-year to $2.08.

Investors will keep a close eye on Nvidia’s guidance after the company signed an important partnership with six major financial giants, including BlackRock, aimed at unlocking more than $500 billion in third-party private capital. Meanwhile, reports that China has eased restrictions on Nvidia’s H200 chips have also boosted optimism over the company’s performance in Asia.

Still, the key question is whether strong results will be good enough to ease concerns over the returns on mounting AI investment, echoed by Nvidia’s hyperscale partners such as Google, Microsoft and Amazon and trigger a new rally in the US100. The index, which failed to follow its US peers to fresh all-time highs, is currently seeking support near its 29,000 round level after its recent recovery stalled around 30,150.