ATFX Market Outlook 17th December 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 17th December 2025

US jobs data sends mixed signals; UK CPI in Focus

Market Highlight

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 in November, while the unemployment rate climbed to 4.6%, the highest level in more than four years. U.S. equities ended mixed on Tuesday: the Nasdaq rebounded to close higher, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell, dragged down by healthcare and energy stocks. The Dow dropped 0.62%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.244%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.23%. The U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies. Although delayed economic data initially suggested stronger-than-expected job growth—hinting the Federal Reserve could remain cautious about further near-term rate cuts—subsequent data prompted interest-rate futures markets to raise the probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s January policy meeting.

Gold prices were little changed late in the U.S. session after the jobs report showed the unemployment rate rose from September, reinforcing expectations of Fed easing and weighing on the dollar index. Spot gold held steady at $4,303.53 per ounce. Crude oil futures settled at their lowest level since February 2021, as concerns over a persistent supply glut continued, while signs of progress toward a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement boosted expectations of potential sanctions relief.

Key Outlook

The UK will release its November CPI data today. After the previous reading rose to 3.6%, inflation is expected to remain elevated, with the market forecast at 3.5%. Persistent inflation has made the Bank of England cautious about cutting rates, and recent voting splits within the Monetary Policy Committee highlight growing divisions. While the latest inflation data could influence this internal debate, it is not expected to alter market expectations for a BoE rate cut at tomorrow’s meeting. Meanwhile, the final reading of Eurozone November CPI is expected at 2.2% year-on-year.

Key Data and Events Today:

15:00 GB CPI & PPI NOV ** 

17:00 EU GERMANY Ifo Business Climate DEC **

18:00 EU CPI YoY Final NOV **

23:00 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **

Tomorrow: 

20:00 BoE Interest Rate Decision & Meeting Minutes *** 

21:15 ECB Interest Rate Decision *** 

21:30 US CPI YoY NOV *** 

21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

21:45 ECB Press Conference ***

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1777/1.1796

· Support: 1.1720/1.1695

Rising US unemployment strengthened expectations of a Fed rate cut, keeping the Dollar soft and lifting EUR/USD to its highest since September. Technically, the pair holds above the midline of the ascending channel, with dips toward 1.1720–1.1695 likely to attract buyers. A softer CPI or PCE print this week could fuel another push toward 1.1777 and beyond.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3509/1.3550

· Support: 1.3370/1.3316

Broad Dollar softness keeps GBP/USD riding its upward channel, with price leaning on the mid-line as a dynamic guide. If the pair holds above the 1.3370 region on dips, bulls may regroup for another push toward 1.3509 resistance. Price structure suggests a “pullback-then-pop” scenario, which could be reinforced if UK CPI prints firm this week.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 155.24/155.75

· Support: 153.61/153.11

USD/JPY continues to slip ahead of Friday’s BoJ meeting, with price grinding along a soft support band near 154.50. The structure still leans bearish—each rebound looks more like a tired pullback than real buying interest. If bulls fail to reclaim 155.24, the pair risks another leg lower toward 153.61 as Yen momentum builds alongside softer US yields.

US Crude Oil Futures (JAN)

· Resistance: 56.41/57.07

· Support: 54.95/54.31

WTI slid toward multi-year lows as supply-glut fears deepened and talk of relaxed sanctions under a peace framework pressured sentiment. Technically, the market remains heavy—every bounce is being sold into, and price is struggling to reclaim $56.41. Unless bulls flip that level, the structure points to another push toward $54.95 as momentum stays firmly bearish.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 4341/4369

· Support: 4274/4245

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 65.26/66.58

-Support: 61.88/60.86

Gold stays firm above $4,300 as higher U.S. unemployment strengthens expectations for further Fed easing. Price is still riding its rising channel, with buyers defending the mid-zone dips. A break above $4,341 could pull momentum toward $4,360–$4,380, while failure keeps $4,274 as the next reload area.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 49068/48744

· Support: 47719/47400

The Dow Futures slipped as healthcare and energy weakness weighed, keeping sentiment cautious ahead of delayed U.S. data. Price is now leaning toward the 47,719–47,7400 support pocket, where buyers have previously reacted. A clean bounce from this zone may reopen 49,000+ upside, while a break below risks deeper retracement.

NAS100

· Resistance: 25364/25600

· Support: 24842/24609

The NAS100 managed a modest rebound, but sentiment remains highly sensitive to incoming inflation data. Price is stabilizing above the 24,842–24,609 support band, where a momentum breakout occurred around that area. A break back above 25,364 could re-ignite upside momentum, while failure to hold support risks another dip.

BTC        

· Resistance: 89249/90531

· Support: 85423/83814

Bitcoin hovered near $87,000 after touching a two-week low, with risk sentiment still fragile following mixed U.S. payrolls. Price is stuck between $89,249 resistance and the $85,423 support floor, where buyers defended last week. A break above $89,249 could spark a relief bounce, while rejection there risks another slide toward the lows.

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