Bitcoin Above $65k: Relief Rally or the Start of a Real Recovery?

Bitcoin has eased back from the 67k high reached late on Monday to trade around 66.5k as investors look cautiously to Friday’s signing of the U.S.-Iran peace agreement, digest the Bank of Japan's rate decision and look ahead to Wednesday's FOMC meeting.

The macro backdrop has improved after President Trump signed an electronic copy of a memorandum of understanding with Iran, and with the Strait of Hormuz set to fully reopen on Friday. Oil prices have fallen sharply as a result, with Brent dropping towards $80 per barrel, easing inflation concerns and supporting risk appetite across financial markets.

However, Bitcoin's reaction has been more measured. Having been disappointed by previous failed agreements, including the collapse of April's deal and the breakdown of a second truce on June 9, investors appear reluctant to fully price in a lasting resolution until the formal signing takes place in Switzerland on June 19.

BoJ rate hike had little impact on BTC

Attention is also turning towards central banks. The BoJ hiked rates to 1%, the highest level since 1995. Unlike previous rate hikes, the move had little impact on Bitcoin, suggesting it was largely priced in. The yen remains weak near 160 against the U.S. dollar, while the Nikkei continues to trade near record highs. With real rates remaining deeply negative, there are few signs of an unwinding of the carry trade.

How could the FOMC rate decision impact BTC?

For Bitcoin, the bigger test will be the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday. In Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Chair, the Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%.

With no policy change expected, investors will focus on the statement, updated economic projections and the dot plot. Markets will be watching closely to see whether the Fed removes the easing bias from its previous guidance. A more hawkish tone could push Treasury yields higher and weigh on risk assets, including Bitcoin, stalling the recovery before it has taken off.

BTC ETFs resume selloff

Institutional demand remains a concern. According to SoSoValue data, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $64.8 million on Tuesday, returning to negative territory after just one day of net inflows.

While ETF outflows have eased significantly from the billion-dollar withdrawals seen earlier this month, Bitcoin's recovery is likely to struggle without a sustained return of institutional capital.

There are, however, some encouraging signs beneath the surface. Strategy disclosed the purchase of a further 1,587 BTC, worth approximately $100 million, between June 8 and June 14, taking total holdings to 846,842 BTC. Continued accumulation by large holders suggests long-term conviction remains intact despite short-term market uncertainty.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis   

Bitcoin has rebounded from the 59.1k 2026 low, recovering above 65k to trade around 66.5k. The price is currently testing resistance at the 20-day SMA.

While the near-term bias has improved, the broader outlook remains cautious as Bitcoin continues to trade below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs.

Buyers need to reclaim the 20-day SMA and push towards 74k, where the 50-day SMA and the lower boundary of the broken ascending channel converge. Above here, the 200-day SMA at 77.5k comes into focus. A break above 83.5k would create a higher high and signal a more meaningful trend reversal.

On the downside, failure to reclaim the 20-day SMA could see Bitcoin retest support at 65k. A move below 60k would create a lower low and strengthen the bearish outlook. 

Read more from PrimeXBT

Disclaimer: The content provided here is for informational purposes only and is not intended as personal investment advice and does not constitute a solicitation or invitation to engage in any financial transactions, investments, or related activities. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The financial products offered by the Company are complex and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. These products may not be suitable for all investors. Before engaging, you should consider whether you understand how these leveraged products work and whether you can afford the high risk of losing your money. The Company does not accept clients from the Restricted Jurisdictions as indicated on its website / T&Cs. Some products and services, including MT5, may not be available in your jurisdiction. The applicable legal entity and its respective products and services depend on the client’s country of residence and the entity with which the client has established a contractual relationship during registration.