Bitcoin bounces above 65k as AI software disruption fears ease & ahead of Nvidia earnings

Risk assets are attempting a rebound as investor sentiment improves. Bitcoin has recovered from yesterday’s low, pushing back above 65k after a positive session on Wall Street overnight and amid a softer US dollar.

The largest cryptocurrency trades 3.5% higher over the past 24 hours, rebounding from yesterday’s 62.5k low but still trading roughly 50% below its October peak. Meanwhile, the broader cryptocurrency market capitalisation has recovered to $2.26 trillion, up 3.4% after retesting the February 5 low.

AI software sector disruption worries calm

Bitcoin’s gains have come alongside a recovery in U.S. equities as concerns eased over the immediate impact of AI on software stocks, helping the tech sector stabilise. Anthropic hosted its enterprise agents event, announcing new partnerships that suggested AI competition risks to software companies may have been overdone. Rather than replacing software firms, Anthropic signalled that AI is increasingly being embedded into existing platforms as an enabler — a development that helped calm investor fears.

The software sector, which Bitcoin has been closely tracking in recent months, rose 1.9% yesterday as investors reassessed the AI disruption narrative. The sector had fallen more than 22% over the past month amid concerns that AI could erode traditional business models. Bitcoin’s reaction underscores its growing sensitivity to equity-sector narratives, particularly within software, rather than purely crypto-specific drivers.

Nvidia reports after the close

Attention now turns to Nvidia earnings after the close today for further insight into the AI trade. Expectations are for another strong report, with Nvidia projected to post a 62% increase in profit and a 68% rise in revenue. Having beaten forecasts for 13 consecutive quarters, the size of any earnings beat could be critical for broader market sentiment. Given Nvidia’s heavy weighting in the S&P 500 (7.3%) and the Nasdaq (13.68%), its results often influence not only equity markets but also liquidity-sensitive assets such as Bitcoin.

Tariff questions could limit BTC upside

A softer USD is also providing a modest tailwind for risk assets. The dollar edged lower to 97.65 following President Trump’s State of the Union address, where he reiterated tariff ambitions even as the US Supreme Court ruled against his reciprocal tariff framework. Trump suggested tariffs could eventually replace income tax, reinforcing policy uncertainty around trade.

A weaker dollar has historically been supportive for BTC, although this relationship has been less consistent during the current downturn. Ongoing tariff uncertainty continues to cloud the macro outlook, reinforcing volatility in currency markets and limiting conviction across risk assets. Questions remain after global trade tariffs of 10% came into force yesterday — lower than the 15% previously threatened — while the Eurozone delayed a parliamentary vote on the US-EU agreement, and several countries are considering renegotiating trade deals. Until policy clarity improves, upside momentum in Bitcoin may remain fragile.

BTC technical analysis  

After briefly breaking out of its 65k to 71k holding pattern, BTC found support just below 63k. The price is attempting to recover into its holding pattern. However, momentum remains weak, and the longer-term downtrend remains intact. Sellers will look to break below 63k to bring 60k into focus.  

A more sustained recovery could see BTC test resistance at 71k. A rise above here breaks BTC out of the holding pattern to the upside, bringing 75k into play ahead of 80k. 

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