Bitcoin Holds Above $62K as Inflation, Fed and CLARITY Act Take Centre Stage. Where next for BTC?

Bitcoin is holding steady around 62.7K after falling 2% yesterday as investors continue to weigh renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, higher oil prices, inflation concerns and softer institutional demand. With headwinds building, BTC could struggle to gain traction.

Oil prices have climbed over 10% so far this week as the U.S. and Iran exchange strikes and continue to dispute control of the Strait of Hormuz. 

The rise in crude prices increases inflation concerns ahead of today's U.S. CPI report. Headline inflation is expected to ease to 3.8% YoY in June, from 4.2% in May, while core CPI, which strips out more volatile food and energy prices, is expected to remain above target at 2.9%.

Sticky core inflation, combined with higher energy prices, could support expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high for longer.

Attention will also turn to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who begins his semi-annual monetary policy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee today. Investors will be watching closely for clues over the outlook for inflation, interest rates and the U.S. economy.

A hawkish Fed, together with inflation concerns, could prove to be a headwind for Bitcoin, as a higher-interest-rate environment typically reduces liquidity and weighs on risk assets.

Institutional demand has also softened again this week. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $424 million of net outflows on Monday, reversing last week's modest net inflows of $197.4 million. Should ETF outflows continue, Bitcoin could struggle to build sustained upside momentum.

The CLARITY Act could be crucial for a near-term BTC recovery

Attention will also be on the CLARITY Act, the most ambitious attempt yet to establish a regulatory framework for the U.S. cryptocurrency industry.

The legislation would create clear statutory rules for exchanges, developers and investors by dividing oversight between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The passage of the CLARITY ACT would mark a major milestone for the crypto industry. However, the bill still requires support from at least seven Democratic senators, with negotiations continuing over stablecoin rewards, developer protections and ethics.

With only 20 working days before the Senate's August recess and no floor vote yet scheduled, the clock is ticking. Failure to advance the bill before the recess would make passage in 2026 much more difficult and could weigh on sentiment across the crypto market.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis   

Bitcoin has recovered from the 2026 low at $57.7K and has reclaimed the 20-day SMA, pointing to improving near-term momentum. However, the price continues to trade below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, as well as the multi-month falling trendline. The recent rejection at the 50-day SMA reinforces the broader bearish outlook.

Sellers will look for a break below the 20-day SMA around $62K to expose the psychological 60K level. A move below the 2026 low at 57.7K would create a lower low and bring 55K into focus ahead of the 50K levels seen in 2024.

Signs of RSI bullish divergence could encourage buyers. A move above the 50-day SMA at 64.5k would bring 67.3K, the mid-June high, into focus. A break above that level would create a higher high and expose the multi-month falling trendline near 70K, followed by the 200-day SMA around 73.7K. 

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