Bitcoin Holds Above $64K Despite Equity Sell-Off and as Fed Minutes Loom

Bitcoin is holding around $64.4K after rising for the past two days, despite a sharp sell-off in equities. Attention now turns to the FOMC minutes, which could give markets a better idea of where the Fed stands on rates and inflation.

Bitcoin gained around 3% over Monday and Tuesday before stalling around $64.4K. It is little changed over the past 24 hours.

This resilience is notable given the selloff in US equities. U.S. tech stocks had their worst session in three weeks on Tuesday, falling 1.3% as Treasury yields reached multi-decade highs, yet Bitcoin barely reacted. The correlation relationship between crypto and stocks looks weak right now.

Part of the explanation could be crypto-specific demand, with BTC ETF flows turning positive and the SEC's proposal for new crypto regulations providing additional support.

BTC ETF demand

Institutional demand has started the week on a stronger note. According to SoSoValue, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $189.3 million in net inflows on Tuesday, the second consecutive day of inflows.

That is encouraging, particularly after the weakness seen in ETF flows across May and June. Flows have since turned positive in July and August, although it's still too early to call this a bullish trend.  

If inflows ramp up over the coming weeks, they could provide a stronger base for Bitcoin to move higher. If they fade again, the recent recovery could struggle to gain momentum.

FOMC minutes in focus

The bigger macro test comes later today with the release of the minutes from the July FOMC meeting.

The backdrop has become more complicated since that meeting. Oil has risen above $90 a barrel as the U.S.-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz continues, while Treasury yields remain elevated.

The Fed left rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% at the July meeting, although three voting members wanted a 25 basis point hike. With Fed Chair Kevin Warsh giving limited forward guidance, the minutes could be particularly useful in showing how divided policymakers were over the inflation outlook and the need for further tightening.

Markets have already pulled back September rate hike expectations following weaker U.S. jobs data and softer inflation. The probability of a hike is now around 36%, down from 57% two weeks ago.

A hawkish set of minutes could reverse some of that move, pushing Treasury yields and the dollar higher. That would probably be a headwind for Bitcoin.

On the other hand, if the minutes show that the Fed is comfortable waiting and sees no immediate need to tighten further, yields could come under pressure and give BTC another push higher.

Bitcoin technical analysis – BTC tests 50 EMA resistance

Bitcoin's recovery from the 57.7K 2026 low has stalled, and the price has been consolidating above a near-term rising trend line and is testing resistance. Of the 50 EMA level. Despite near-term momentum, the price trading below its 100 and 200 EMA points to a longer-term bearish outlook.

Buyers will need to extend gains above the 50 EMA towards the 100 EMA at 66.3k and 67k, the July high. A rise above here exposes the 200 EMA at 71.5K above, but the outlook turns more constructive.  

Failure to rise meaningfully above 50K. You can see the price pull back to test 62.6K. The rising trendline support is great. A break below creates a lower low, potentially opening the door to 60K, the psychological number, and 57.7K, the 2026 low.  

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