Bitcoin holds below 70k ahead of FOMC minutes, and as tech stocks remain depressed

Bitcoin is holding steady below 68k after falling 2% on Tuesday, continuing to trade within a narrow consolidation range over the past 11 days. Ethereum remains near 2000, while Solana trades around 85. The broader cryptocurrency market capitalisation is down 0.4% over the past 24 hours to $2.34 trillion.

Tech stock weakness keeps BTC subdued

Bitcoin continues to struggle below the key 70k level as it searches for a fresh catalyst. Over the past month, BTC has moved largely in tandem with U.S. technology stocks, and more specifically, the S&P 500 software sector. Concerns that AI disruption could undermine traditional software business models — combined with questions over whether heavy AI investment will generate sufficient returns — have prompted a rotation out of growth stocks.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq has underperformed the Dow Jones this year, while the S&P 500 software sector has fallen 17% over the past month. Bitcoin has tracked this weakness closely, reinforcing the view that it is behaving less like an independent asset and more like a high-beta extension of the growth trade. As investors reduce exposure to high-duration assets, capital has exited both software stocks and crypto in tandem.

BTC & IGV (iShares tech software sector ETF) 

There are tentative signs that the selloff in software stocks may be stabilising. If sustained, this could help BTC remain above last week’s 60k low. However, any meaningful recovery is likely to depend on broader liquidity conditions.

FOMC minutes, Fed rate cut expectations & BTC moves

In parallel, Bitcoin remains sensitive to expectations around Federal Reserve policy. Incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh brings expectations of a tighter liquidity backdrop, which has hurt the outlook for BTC.  

Attention now turns to the January FOMC meeting, at which the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that the labour market was stabilising and inflation remained above target. He said that a rate cut “isn’t anyone’s base case as the economy surprises to the upside. Following the meeting, markets pared back rate-cut expectations.

Since then, economic data have delivered mixed signals: payrolls beat forecasts, while CPI cooled more than expected. Federal Reserve speakers have also diverged, adding to uncertainty about the policy path. Markets are currently pricing in around 63 basis points of rate cuts in 2026 — more than the Fed has guided to — leaving scope for volatility if expectations are repriced.

As well as today’s FOMC minutes, Friday’s core PCE, and Q4 GDP data could influence monetary policy expectations. Hawkish signals could strengthen the U.S. dollar and pressure liquidity-sensitive assets.

For now, Bitcoin’s consolidation reflects its deeper integration into traditional markets. As long as software sector sentiment and monetary policy expectations drive broader risk appetite, BTC is likely to remain closely tied to equity performance rather than trade independently of it.

Bitcoin technical analysis 

On the 4-hour chart, BTC/USDT trades within a symmetrical triangle. While the price trades below the 20- and 50-day SMA, this could favour a downside breakout.

Sellers will need to break below 67.2k to break out of the pattern. A break below 65k confirms the breakout and creates a lower low, bringing 60k into play.

Buyers would need to rise above the 20 and 50 SMA to test the falling trendline resistance at 70k. A rise above here and 72k confirms the breakout, bringing 75k into focus ahead of the 80k round number. 

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