Bitcoin Pauses Below $64K as Fed Minutes Loom and ETF Flows Improve

Bitcoin is easing back after reaching a two-week high above 64k overnight as investors assess Strategy's recent Bitcoin sale alongside the prospect of a still-hawkish Federal Reserve.

The world's largest cryptocurrency is pausing after a six-day rally that has seen it recover from the 2026 low near 57.7k to almost 64.6k, its highest level in four weeks.

Fed minutes to test the recent rally?

Bitcoin's recovery has coincided with a lowering of Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. Last week's softer-than-expected U.S. jobs report, together with less hawkish-than-feared comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, prompted investors to scale back expectations for further tightening. Markets are not expecting a July rate hike and see around a 42% chance that rates will remain unchanged at the September meeting. 

Attention now turns to tomorrow's release of the minutes from the FOMC’s June meeting. These will be the first minutes under Chair Kevin Warsh and relate to a meeting that markets viewed as more hawkish than expected, with half of policymakers projecting at least one further rate hike before the end of 2026.  

Should the minutes reinforce that hawkish message, highlighting policymakers' concerns about inflation, this could raise Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, creating a less supportive backdrop for Bitcoin and other risk assets.

Institutional demand begins to stabilise

The market has largely absorbed news that Strategy, the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder, sold 3,588 Bitcoin worth more than $216 million last week to fund dividend payments. The limited market reaction suggests investors viewed the transaction as balance-sheet management rather than a shift in Strategy's long-term commitment to Bitcoin.

More encouragingly, institutional demand is showing tentative signs of improving. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $265 million of net inflows on Monday, marking a second consecutive day of positive flows after almost $9 billion of cumulative outflows over the previous two months.

While it is far too early to call a sustained turnaround, stabilising ETF demand would remove one of the biggest headwinds that weighed on Bitcoin over the past two months.

Could the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve become the next structural catalyst?

Another theme attracting growing attention is the proposed U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

The White House has confirmed that work is underway to formalise the reserve, with the U.S. government already holding more than 328,000 BTC, equivalent to roughly 1.6% of Bitcoin's circulating supply.

Attention is now shifting to the proposed American Reserves Modernization Act, which would authorise the U.S. Treasury to acquire up to 1 million Bitcoin over five years, subject to a minimum 20-year holding period.

This proposal is still in its early stages and is likely to face a lengthy legislative process. However, if approved, it could significantly lift demand.

Every major Bitcoin bull market has been driven by a structural catalyst—from institutional adoption and spot ETFs to corporate treasury buying. While it is far too early to conclude that a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve will become the next catalyst, it is a theme investors are increasingly likely to watch.

BTC technical analysis   

Bitcoin has recovered from the 2026 low at 57.7K, rising above the 20 SMA to a peak of 64.6K yesterday. While the price has eased back to around 63K, it remains above the 20 SMA, pointing to improving near-term momentum. However, it continues to trade below the 50 SMA, the 200 SMA, and the multi-month falling trendline, leaving the broader outlook bearish.

Buyers will need to break above the 50 SMA at 66.6K and the June 15 high at 67K to create a higher high and expose the 200 SMA at 74.5K. A break above the 200 SMA would strengthen the longer-term outlook.

Immediate support is seen at the 20 SMA around 62K, followed by the psychological 60K level. A break below 57.7K would create a lower low, exposing 55K, ahead of 50K, the August 2024 low. 

Read more from PrimeXBT

Disclaimer: The content provided here is for informational purposes only and is not intended as personal investment advice and does not constitute a solicitation or invitation to engage in any financial transactions, investments, or related activities. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The financial products offered by the Company are complex and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. These products may not be suitable for all investors. Before engaging, you should consider whether you understand how these leveraged products work and whether you can afford the high risk of losing your money. The Company does not accept clients from the Restricted Jurisdictions as indicated on its website / T&Cs. Some products and services, including MT5, may not be available in your jurisdiction. The applicable legal entity and its respective products and services depend on the client’s country of residence and the entity with which the client has established a contractual relationship during registration.