Bitcoin Price Prediction: All Eyes on the Fed as BTC Reclaims $64K

Bitcoin is rising on Wednesday, climbing back above 64.5k as attention turns to the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and despite oil prices jumping on renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, reviving inflation concerns.

The world's largest cryptocurrency has recovered from yesterday's low of 62.7k and is up 1.5% over the past 24 hours. Major altcoins are also higher, with Ethereum rising 2% over the same period.

What to expect from the FOMC rate decision

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, due at 18:00 GMT. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will hold a press conference at 18:30 GMT.

The meeting comes after June inflation cooled more than expected to 3.5% year-on-year. However, renewed hostilities in the Middle East have pushed oil prices up by around 20% this month, reviving concerns that inflationary pressures could ramp up again.

Expectations are that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%.

Market pricing is among the most divided ahead of a Fed meeting in recent history, suggesting the decision could spark volatility. Fed funds futures are pricing in around a 30% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike today, with a 70% chance that rates are left unchanged. The market is also pricing in around an 80% probability of a September rate hike.

Adding to the uncertainty, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's preference for limited forward guidance and shorter policy statements means the committee vote could become one of the strongest signals for markets to focus on.

Expectations are for a 10-2 vote, while keeping a potential September rate hike on the table—in other words, a hawkish hold. Should there be more than two dissents or stronger language highlighting inflation risks, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar could rise, while risk assets such as cryptocurrencies could come under pressure.

Conversely, if there is only one dissent or the committee votes unanimously to leave rates unchanged, Treasury yields and the dollar could fall as markets scale back expectations of a September hike, supporting cryptocurrencies, gold and other risk assets. This scenario could see BTC rise above 65k.

Bitcoin technical analysis 

  While Bitcoin has recovered from the 57.7k, the 2026 low, it continues to trade below its 50, 100, and 200 EMAs, maintaining a bearish outlook. The RSI is neutral.  

Support can be seen at 60k, the psychological level, with a break below here opening the door to 57.7k. Should sellers take out this level, it creates a lower low, opening the door to 55K and 50K levels seen in 2024.  

On the upside, there is a cluster of resistance levels, including the 50 SMA at 65k. A rise above here exposes 67.5k, the 100 EMA, the falling trend line resistance, and the June 15. A rise above here creates a more constructive outlook, exposing the 200 EMA at 73.3k. 

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