Bitcoin rises to $76K as markets anticipate peace, and institutional demand rises

Bitcoin is pushing above $76,000 on Tuesday, trading cautiously higher ahead of a potential new round of US–Iran peace talks, with a ceasefire deadline approaching.

BTC is up around 2% over the past 24 hours and has gained almost 12% so far in April — outperforming US equities, which have risen close to 9% over the same period but are already trading near record highs.  

US-Iran peace talks in focus

April’s rally has been driven primarily by improving macro sentiment. Markets have become increasingly optimistic that the war in Iran will end soon. Despite Tehran’s initial reluctance to engage in talks this week, both the US and Iran are expected to resume negotiations as the current two-week ceasefire window expires.

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, but oil prices are falling on expectations that a diplomatic “off-ramp” could be reached, allowing the Strait to reopen on a more permanent basis. For now, that optimism is outweighing the reality of ongoing supply disruption and energy shock.

US Treasury yields are broadly stable, reflecting a wait-and-see approach as markets look for confirmation from geopolitical developments.

Markets are pricing a positive outcome

Current pricing suggests investors are leaning towards a positive outcome for the Iran war. Markets are assigning roughly a 40% probability that the Federal Reserve could still cut rates this year — an expectation that relies heavily on oil prices stabilising and inflation pressures remaining contained.  

However, the risk to this outlook is that peace talks fall apart. If negotiations stall or the conflict escalates, oil prices could rise again, pushing yields higher and tightening financial conditions — a combination that typically weighs on Bitcoin and other non-yielding assets.

For Bitcoin to break higher, markets will need confirmation that peace is progressing — otherwise, the current rally risks running ahead of reality.

Institutional demand adds support

Alongside macro tailwinds, institutional demand remains a key pillar of support. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $238.3 million in inflows on Monday, building on last week’s $996.4 million of inflows. Cumulatively, ETF flows have now surpassed $1 billion this year, marking a clear reversal from earlier outflows and signalling renewed investor interest.

Corporate demand is also reinforcing the trend. Strategy purchased 34,164 BTC for $2.5 billion — its third-largest acquisition on record and the biggest since late 2024. This brings its total holdings to 815,061 BTC at an average cost of $75,527.

With Bitcoin trading above that level, the firm is now in profit — reinforcing the incentive to continue accumulating and providing a strong signal of long-term conviction.

Bitcoin technical analysis 

BTC trades in a rising channel dating back to early February. The price has pushed above the falling trendline dating back to the 126k October high and holds above its 50 SMA.  

Buyers will look to extend the bullish move, supported by the RSI above 50. Resistance is seen at 78k, the April high. A rise above here opens the door to 80k, the round number and November low ahead of 85k, the 38.2% Fib retracement of the 126k high and 60k low, as well as the 200 SMA.  At these levels, the BTC price is on a firmer footing.

On the downside, BTC support is around 71k, the falling trendline support, and the 50 SMA. Below here, 67k, the lower band of the rising channel comes into focus ahead of 65k, the March low. From here, attention turns to 60k, the 2026 low. 

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