Bitcoin rises towards $75K: Peace hopes & US stocks at record highs support BTC

Bitcoin is pushing towards the $75,000 mark, extending gains from earlier in the week as global risk sentiment improves on renewed hopes for US–Iran diplomacy.

The largest cryptocurrency is up around 1% over the past 24 hours and has gained nearly 5% over the past week. Ethereum is also higher, rising 0.9% on the day and 7.3% over the same period.

Markets price in de-escalation

The latest move higher is being driven less by crypto-specific catalysts and more by a broader shift in the macro backdrop.

Global risk assets have rallied, with US equities reaching record highs, supported by strong earnings, tech-led gains, and growing optimism that tensions in the Middle East could ease.

President Trump has said he expects the war in Iran to end soon and that negotiations between Washington and Tehran could continue, potentially extending the fragile ceasefire and reducing the risk of a prolonged conflict.

In effect, markets are pricing in a de-escalation scenario — even as the US maintains a blockade on Iranian ports. Tehran has indicated that it may allow limited shipping through the Strait of Hormuz if a deal is reached, further reinforcing expectations that the worst-case energy shock may be avoided.

Easing geopolitical risks helps cap oil prices, reduce inflation concerns, and lower Treasury yields — all of which support risk assets, including crypto.

ETF flows reinforce the rally

At the same time, institutional demand is re-emerging. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows of $411.4 million and $186.1 million on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, bringing total inflows for the week to $306.4 million and marking a third consecutive week of net inflows.   These flows are important because they provide a steady source of demand that can help absorb supply and support price stability during periods of macro uncertainty.

What's next for Bitcoin?

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has tested the $76K level multiple times but has so far failed to break decisively higher. A sustained move above this level could open the door to a stronger rally.

However, the outlook remains highly dependent on macro developments.

If geopolitical risks re-escalate or risk sentiment fades — for example through a renewed spike in oil prices or rising Treasury yields — Bitcoin could quickly come back under pressure.

BTC/USD technical analysis

Bitcoin trades within an ascending channel dating back to early February. The price is attempting to break above a multi-month descending trendline from the October record high near $126K. However, the price remains below resistance around $76K — the March high and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the $126K high to $59.5K low.

A sustained move above $76K would bring $80K, the round number into focus, followed by $85K (the 38.2% retracement level) and the 200 SMA at 88k.

On the downside, initial support lies near $71K, the falling trendline support, with stronger support at $69.6K, the 50-day SMA and the lower band of the rising channel. A break below $65K creates a lower low.  

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