Bitcoin tops $81K as ETF inflows, risk rally, and regulatory progress fuel gains

Bitcoin has risen above $80k, reaching a fresh three-month high of $81.3k and boosting optimism for a potential move towards $90k. The latest gains mark a strong recovery from the $60K February low and reflect improving sentiment, rising institutional demand, and growing optimism around the regulatory outlook.

Sentiment rebounds alongside a broader risk rally

Bitcoin’s 13% rise across April has helped restore confidence in crypto markets.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has climbed to 50 — firmly in Neutral territory — after spending months in Fear and Extreme Fear. This marks the strongest sentiment reading since January and signals a clear shift away from defensive positioning.

The move higher has also coincided with improving global risk sentiment. US equity indices have rallied to fresh record highs in recent sessions, led by tech stocks. With Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq near 0.98, this highlights BTC’s sensitivity to macro factors.

Institutional demand accelerates

Institutional flows have been a key driver for BTC.  

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded over $1 billion in net inflows over the past two days alone, bringing total inflows for May to approximately $1.16 billion. This follows $3.3 billion in combined inflows across March and April, marking a sharp turnaround after four consecutive months of outflows at the start of the year.

These inflows are significant as they provide a consistent source of demand, helping to absorb selling pressure and support price stability during rallies.

At the same time, Bitcoin balances on exchanges have declined — typically interpreted as a sign that investors are moving assets into longer-term storage rather than preparing to sell.

This combination of rising demand and tightening supply is creating a more supportive backdrop for further upside. 

Regulatory outlook adds to momentum

The regulatory backdrop is also improving.

Progress on the proposed CLARITY Act has boosted investor confidence. Lawmakers, including Tom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks, have reached an agreement on key provisions, including elements related to stablecoin incentives.

According to Polymarket, the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law by 2026 has risen to around 70%, up from 42% previously. Clearer regulation is widely seen as a key catalyst for further institutional adoption.

Can Bitcoin break out? BTC technical analysis

Bitcoin continues to trade in a rising channel dating back to early February, rising to a 3-month high of 81.3k and testing the upper band of the channel. The price is pushed above the falling trendline dating back to the October 126 high, and the 50 SMA has crossed above the 100 SMA in a light-touch golden cross signal. This, combined with the RSI above 50, keeps buyers hopeful of further upside.

Bulls will look to break above 81.3k to break out of the channel and expose the 200 SMA at 83.3k. Above here, buyers could gain traction towards 85K, the 38.2% fib retracement of the 126k high and 60k low, ahead of 94k, the 50% Fib level.

On the downside, support can be found at 76 K, the 23.6% fib retracement of the rising channel. Below here, the 50 SMA comes into play at 73K, ahead of the lower bound of the rising channel at 71k. It would take a move below 65k, the April low, to create a lower low and change the structure of the chart. 

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