Brent - Ceasefire Declared Over, Oil Jumps 5% Overnight

Brent trades around $77.5 today, up sharply from $72 just two days ago. The trigger was blunt. President Trump said he now considers the ceasefire finished, and the US carried out fresh strikes on Iran overnight. Washington also revoked the waiver that had allowed Iran to sell crude on the open market.

Iran responded by saying it struck 85 US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait. New attacks have hit tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz, including a Qatari LNG carrier and a Saudi oil tanker.

If this sounds familiar, it should. We covered this exact swing in June: peace talk, then a threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, then a deal, then a collapse. Markets had shifted their focus toward an oil glut, with OPEC+ raising output and producers pumping more. That story is now on hold.

The key question is the same one as before. Is this a real return to war, or another round of pressure before talks resume? Nobody can say yet. Traders are once again pricing real risk into the Strait of Hormuz — the route for about a fifth of the world's oil.

Brent key levels: 

• Resistance: 80, then 85 
• Support: 74, then 70 

Watching: any confirmed shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, further Iran-US strikes, and whether talks resume.

By Born2trade market research department

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