Brent Tops $100 After Red Sea Attack - CPT Markets

Market Wrap-up: Brent Tops $100 After Houthi Tanker Attack  Oil prices surged sharply on July 23 after reports that two Saudi Arabian oil tankers were attacked in the Red Sea, while US President Donald Trump said he was considering a large-scale military strike against Iran.

According to reports, the Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen claimed responsibility for missile and drone attacks on the two Saudi tankers, accusing Riyadh of violating a newly imposed maritime blockade.

In response, President Trump stated that the United States would hold Iran accountable for any future Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, warning that both Tehran and the Houthis would face severe military retaliation.

Tensions intensified further after Iran declared it would target US-linked energy infrastructure and assets across the region should Washington proceed with military strikes.

Brent crude climbed above $100 per barrel for the first time since May 26, rising around 7% to settle at $100.69 per barrel. US WTI crude gained nearly 6% to close at $92.19 per barrel. Oil prices have now advanced more than 30% since the beginning of the month as geopolitical risks across the Middle East continue to threaten global energy supplies.

The sharp rise in oil prices triggered a broad risk-off move across Wall Street. The Dow Jones fell more than 500 points, while the Nasdaq led losses with a decline of 2.15%.

At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.3% to 101.50, while the 10-year US Treasury yield briefly climbed above 4.7%, its highest level since January 2025. The 2-year Treasury yield also reached 4.37%. Higher yields and a stronger US dollar weighed heavily on precious metals, sending gold down 2.1% to $4,041.59 per ounce.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in an approximately 80% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, up from 68% a day earlier.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% on July 23, in line with market expectations. Investors continue to expect the ECB to follow its June 2026 tightening move with another 25 basis point rate increase in September 2026.

Looking ahead for today, alongside developments in the Middle East, traders will closely monitor the latest Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI data from the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the Eurozone for fresh signals on global economic momentum.

XAU/USD: Gold Falls as Treasury Yields Rise and Fed Hike Bets Increase 

Key takeaway:

Gold fell more than 2% on July 23 as the sharp rally in oil prices intensified inflation concerns and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep tightening monetary policy this year.

The US dollar strengthened by 0.3%, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, while the 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to its highest level in more than a year, further reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets.

Technical Outlook:

Daily Bias: Bearish

Support: 3,959

Resistance: 4,100

Oil: WTI Surges as US-Iran Tensions and Houthi Attacks Escalate 

Key takeaway:

WTI crude surged on July 23 after reports that two Saudi Arabian oil tankers were attacked in the Red Sea and President Donald Trump said the United States was considering a large-scale military strike against Iran.

Beyond the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine conflict continued to tighten global supply conditions.

Ukraine reportedly attacked more than 150 oil tankers operating in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov this month, forcing the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) to suspend oil loading operations at its Black Sea export terminal.

Technical Outlook:

Daily Bias: Bullish

Support: 88.60

Resistance: 93.30

 DXY: US Dollar Strengthens on Jobs Data and Geopolitical Risks 

Key takeaway:

The US dollar strengthened broadly on Thursday as stronger than expected US labor market data and escalating tensions in the Middle East boosted demand for the greenback.

Initial jobless claims fell to 187,000 in the week ending July 18, well below market expectations of 212,000 and the previous revised reading of 209,000.

The data marked the lowest level since 1969, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep monetary policy restrictive for longer.

Technical Outlook:

Daily Bias: Bullish

Support: 101.27

Resistance: 101.80

EUR/USD: Euro Weakens After ECB Holds Rates Steady 

Key takeaway:

The euro weakened after the ECB maintained its policy stance, while the escalating Iran conflict continued to support the US dollar.

The central bank left its main refinancing rate unchanged at 2.40%, the marginal lending facility at 2.65%, and the deposit facility at 2.25%.

In its post-meeting statement, the ECB stressed that uncertainty remains elevated and that the full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to materialize. The Governing Council said it will closely monitor the intensity, duration, and potential second-round effects of the shock before determining its next policy steps.

Technical Outlook:

Daily Bias: Cautiously Bearish

Support: 1.13620

Resistance: 1.14060

USD/JPY: Japanese Yen Slides as Safe-Haven Dollar Gains 

Key takeaway:

The Japanese yen extended its losses on Thursday as the US dollar strengthened following significantly stronger-than-expected US labor market data.

Escalating tensions in the Middle East also continued to support safe-haven demand for the US dollar, adding upward pressure on USD/JPY in the near term.

Meanwhile, data released by Japan's Statistics Bureau this morning showed that the country's National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.7% year-on-year in June, up from 1.5% in May.

Technical Outlook:

Daily Bias: Bullish

Support: 163.24

Resistance: 164.00

The market is being driven primarily by escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The sharp rally in oil prices has revived inflation concerns, prompting traders to price in a more hawkish Federal Reserve. That repricing pushed Treasury yields and the US dollar higher, pressured gold, and triggered broad weakness across US equities.

For now, geopolitical headlines remain the dominant catalyst, but attention will gradually shift back to macro data.

Today's Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI releases across the US and Europe will be closely watched for fresh signals on growth momentum and whether current market positioning around the US dollar and central bank expectations can be sustained.

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