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Buybacks and Big Tech Flows Power the Next Leg Higher
Several supportive forces are gathering pace in US equities, with the most notable being the rise in corporate buybacks. Historically, share repurchases have been one of the principal drivers of growth in the S&P 500 since 2011: by reducing the number of shares in circulation, companies effectively enhance EPS and underpin valuations. The current wave of record buyback announcements suggests a high degree of confidence from corporate management and provides a consistent internal source of demand.
An additional catalyst is coming from institutional positioning. Since early April, funds and asset managers have been building exposure to US technology equity futures at an unprecedented pace. This further reinforces the prevailing trend, as the NASDAQ 100 and large-cap technology firms remain the primary beneficiaries of capital inflows. In combination, buybacks and institutional demand create a compelling “dual support” for the market — from both corporate balance sheets and investor allocations.
From a forward-looking standpoint, the outlook remains constructive in the medium term. Should these dynamics persist, indices could reasonably advance by around 8–15% from current levels, particularly if earnings continue to exceed expectations. That said, the risk of overheating is becoming more apparent: any deterioration in the macroeconomic backdrop or bouts of profit-taking could prompt corrections in the region of 5–10%. Nevertheless, such pullbacks would likely be viewed as opportunities, provided liquidity conditions remain positive.
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