Dollar Firms as Metals Slide Before FOMC Minutes | 17th February, 2026

Dollar Firms, Metals Slide

Global markets are tilting toward a risk-on tone as the US Dollar edges higher ahead of the release of the FOMC Minutes. The firmer Dollar is weighing on precious metals, with Gold retreating and Silver slipping toward the $76.00 level as investors trim defensive exposure. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil softens near $63.50 amid speculation of a potential OPEC+ output hike and renewed US-Iran discussions. In FX markets, the Euro remains under pressure, with EUR/USD trading below the mid-1.1800s and EUR/JPY sliding ahead of key German inflation and sentiment data.

Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast

Current Price and Context

Gold weakens as a firmer US Dollar and improving risk appetite dominate market sentiment ahead of the FOMC Minutes. The metal struggles to attract safe-haven flows despite lingering geopolitical concerns.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing tensions provide background support but lack fresh escalation.

US Economic Data: Resilient US data supports the Dollar and weighs on bullion.

FOMC Outcome: Traders await clarity on the Fed’s rate path, limiting aggressive positioning.

Trade Policy: Stable global trade conditions reduce urgency for defensive assets.

Monetary Policy: Rate-cut expectations remain supportive longer term but are losing short-term momentum.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Short-term bearish bias within broader consolidation.

Resistance: $5,020

Support: $4,950

Forecast: Further downside is possible unless the FOMC Minutes deliver a dovish surprise that pressures US yields.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Mildly bearish near term.

Catalysts: FOMC minutes, US Treasury yields, USD direction.

Silver (XAG/USD) Forecast

Current Price and Context

Silver drops toward the $76.00 area as investors reduce exposure to precious metals ahead of the Fed minutes, mirroring Gold’s softness.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Limited safe-haven demand in the absence of fresh escalation.

US Economic Data: Stable US data supports the Dollar and dampens metals appetite.

FOMC Outcome: Policy uncertainty restrains upside momentum.

Trade Policy: Neutral trade backdrop provides little directional bias.

Monetary Policy: Prospects of easing later this year offer medium-term support.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Corrective pullback.

Resistance: $77.50

Support: $74.80

Forecast: Downside pressure may persist unless the Fed minutes weaken the Dollar significantly.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish.

Catalysts: FOMC minutes, gold performance, broader risk appetite.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast

Current Price and Context

WTI crude slips toward $63.50 as markets weigh the possibility of an OPEC+ output increase alongside potential US-Iran diplomatic developments.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: US-Iran talks could ease supply concerns.

US Economic Data: Growth outlook influences demand expectations.

FOMC Outcome: Dollar strength linked to Fed signals may impact oil pricing.

Trade Policy: Stable global trade conditions support demand outlook.

Monetary Policy: Rate expectations influence macro sentiment and energy demand projections.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Short-term bearish pressure.

Resistance: $65.20

Support: $62.80

Forecast: Risks tilt to the downside if supply expansion signals strengthen.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Moderately bearish.

Catalysts: OPEC+ developments, US-Iran headlines, FOMC minutes, USD movement.

EUR/JPY Forecast

Current Price and Context

EUR/JPY falls below 181.50 as traders position ahead of German HICP inflation data and the ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Stable global backdrop limits strong safe-haven yen demand.

US Economic Data: Indirect influence via global yield dynamics.

FOMC Outcome: Fed tone may impact cross-asset risk sentiment.

Trade Policy: Neutral global trade flows provide limited direction.

Monetary Policy: Diverging ECB-BoJ expectations remain a structural driver.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Mild corrective decline.

Resistance: 182.30

Support: 180.80

Forecast: Further downside possible if German data disappoints and risk appetite softens.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Slightly cautious.

Catalysts: German HICP, ZEW Survey, global risk trends.

EUR/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

EUR/USD remains pressured below the mid-1.1800s, though downside momentum appears limited as traders await fresh catalysts from US and Eurozone data.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Contained tensions limit strong defensive Dollar flows.

US Economic Data: Stable inflation expectations support the Greenback.

FOMC Outcome: Minutes could shift rate cut expectations.

Trade Policy: Limited near-term impact on price action.

Monetary Policy: Diverging ECB-Fed outlook remains central.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bearish bias with consolidation characteristics.

Resistance: 1.1860

Support: 1.1780

Forecast: A sustained recovery requires a softer USD tone post-FOMC; otherwise, range-bound trade may continue.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Neutral-to-bearish.

Catalysts: FOMC minutes, US yields, German data releases.

Wrap-Up

With the FOMC Minutes looming, markets appear positioned cautiously, favoring the Dollar and cyclical assets over traditional safe havens. A hawkish tone from the Fed could reinforce USD strength and extend pressure on metals, while any dovish signals may trigger a rebound in Gold and broader FX pairs. Until clearer policy guidance emerges, volatility is likely to remain elevated, particularly across commodities and major currency pairs sensitive to yield expectations.

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