Dollar Firms Despite Trade Uncertainty | 24th February, 2026

Dollar Up, Gold Eases

Markets opened the week with the US Dollar showing resilience, advancing across major currency pairs despite lingering trade uncertainties. Gold eased slightly from recent highs as investors reassessed safe-haven demand amid firming Dollar flows. Traders remain cautious ahead of key US economic data, with risk appetite muted and commodity-linked currencies showing mixed performance.

Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast

Current Price and Context

Gold retreats slightly from its recent monthly peak, currently trading below $1,950. The move reflects modest USD strength, which is weighing on safe-haven demand, while investors await key US macro data for fresh directional cues.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Lingering global tensions provide intermittent support.

US Economic Data: Anticipated US CPI keeps positioning cautious.

FOMC Outcome: Markets await signals on the pace of future rate moves.

Trade Policy: Tariff concerns are present but have muted immediate effect.

Monetary Policy: Dollar resilience limits upside momentum for gold.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Mild bearish correction from monthly highs.

Resistance: $1,960

Support: $1,925

Forecast: Gold may consolidate near current levels unless USD weakens.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Cautiously neutral with defensive positioning easing.

Catalysts: US CPI, FOMC commentary, geopolitical headlines.

USD/CHF Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/CHF edges higher to near 0.7760 as the Dollar maintains firmness despite trade policy uncertainty. Trading remains cautious ahead of upcoming US economic releases.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Stable conditions limit safe-haven CHF flows.

US Economic Data: CPI and inflation data provide near-term focus.

FOMC Outcome: Fed tone may influence broader USD strength.

Trade Policy: Tariff concerns are priced in, reducing immediate market impact.

Monetary Policy: Dollar resilience supported by rate differentials.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Sideways to mildly bullish.

Resistance: 0.7780

Support: 0.7720

Forecast: USD/CHF may continue upward bias unless risk sentiment shifts sharply.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Neutral, leaning bullish.

Catalysts: FOMC minutes, US CPI, CHF liquidity movements.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) Forecast

Current Price and Context

NZD/USD drifts above 0.5950 as trade uncertainty supports cautious positioning. The pair remains sensitive to US macro releases and regional economic updates.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Market caution limits aggressive NZD positioning.

US Economic Data: USD strength from upcoming CPI data impacts NZD.

FOMC Outcome: Fed guidance will remain a primary driver.

Trade Policy: Tariff concerns influence risk-sensitive flows.

Monetary Policy: Diverging RBNZ-Fed outlooks shape the pair.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Mild bullish bias.

Resistance: 0.5980

Support: 0.5920

Forecast: NZD/USD may consolidate until US data provides clarity.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Cautiously neutral with selective risk appetite.

Catalysts: US CPI, Fed commentary, trade headlines.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast

Current Price and Context

The US Dollar Index hovers near 98.00 as the Dollar remains firm against major currencies. Market positioning is cautious amid trade uncertainty and upcoming US data releases.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Global tensions provide mild safe-haven support.

US Economic Data: CPI and inflation readings will guide Dollar flows.

FOMC Outcome: Fed tone remains central to USD strength.

Trade Policy: Tariff uncertainty underpins defensive positioning.

Monetary Policy: Higher-for-longer expectations support USD strength.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Mild bullish consolidation.

Resistance: 98.40

Support: 97.60

Forecast: DXY may hold gains but remains sensitive to US surprises.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Neutral-to-bullish.

Catalysts: US CPI, FOMC minutes, trade headlines.

Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/CAD softens toward 1.3700 despite firm oil prices and trade uncertainty. Mixed sentiment reflects Dollar strength versus commodity-linked CAD support.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Stable risk conditions favor gradual CAD support.

US Economic Data: Dollar strength ahead of CPI keeps the pair in a range.

FOMC Outcome: Fed guidance could trigger short-term volatility.

Trade Policy: Tariff uncertainty caps broad directional moves.

Monetary Policy: Oil-driven CAD strength offsets USD gains partially.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Sideways to mildly bearish.

Resistance: 1.3740

Support: 1.3660

Forecast: USD/CAD may remain range-bound until US data and oil market developments provide clarity.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Neutral, with cautious positioning.

Catalysts: US CPI, oil price movement, FOMC minutes.

Wrap-Up

Overall, the Dollar’s firmness continues to shape early-week market sentiment, keeping Gold under pressure while commodity currencies display selective gains and losses. Trade uncertainty remains a background factor, but market attention is increasingly focused on upcoming economic releases that could influence Fed expectations and FX positioning. Near-term movements are likely to remain sensitive to Dollar strength, geopolitical developments, and risk sentiment shifts.

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