​EBC Markets Briefing | Crude prices down from highs; UPS shares skid

Oil fell for the first time in six days as Washington is considering potentially intervening in the futures market against rising energy costs and giving waivers to Indian refiners to buy Russian crude.

A senior White House official said on Thursday, the US Treasury Department is expected to announce measures to combat extreme market volatility from the Iran conflict, without providing any details.

Analysts cautioned that the recent gain in prices is relatively subdued compared ⁠to other price shocks, particularly after the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when prices rose to three digits.

Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO David Solomon was surprised with the "benign" reaction to what is happening, saying "it's going to take a couple of weeks for markets to really digest the implications".

Crude oil inventories in the US increased more than expected during the week ending 27 February, according to the EIA, which suggests a potential softening in demand.

In late February JP Morgan Global Research expected to see Brent crude averaging around $60 in 2026. This forecast was underpinned by soft supply-demand fundamentals, pointing to lower oil prices in the following months.

Brent crude showed signs of stability, with technical overbought pressures raised concerns about a pullback. But we do not see the price tumble below $80 before let-up in the ongoing conflict.

Asset recap

As of market close on 5 March, among EBC major products, Intuit shares led gains after focus has shifted from fears of AI-driven disruption to the company's fundamentals and valuations.

Last month UPS CEO Carol Tomé announced plans to cut up to 30,000 jobs, close 24 facilities, and complete the Amazon volume glide-down by June. The network reset and dividend drop-off may be behind yesterday's plunge.

Japan and South Korea's roll-coaster stock market ride threw investors into tailspin. The losses were driven by the heavyweights that had supercharged the market higher until last month.

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