EURUSD, GBPUSD, OIL

EU unrest weighs on euro & Flash PMIs – EURUSD  

The euro fell as much as 0.5% to 1.1180 on Monday before recovering some losses, as widespread protests across France and other European countries escalated into violent clashes between police and demonstrators over the weekend. Unrest spread across major cities in Belgium, Italy, and Portugal, weighing on sentiment toward the common currency. Meanwhile, market focus shifts to Friday's preliminary Eurozone flash PMI surveys to revive single-currency sentiment. A disappointing set of composite PMI figures would weaken European Central Bank (ECB) hawkishness and extend Euro weakness. 

EURUSD opened with a bearish gap that is currently being filled, with price action holding firmly above the 1.1200 floor. Initial overhead resistance is located at the 1.1270 barrier, which coincides with the 20-day SMA, followed by the 1.1325 hurdle. On the downside, immediate support holds at 1.1150, backed by a key structural floor at 1.1110. Strong flash PMI prints above the 50.0 expansion threshold remain essential to spark a sustained upside recovery.

UK CPI – GBPUSD 

Sterling continues to outperform major counterparts ahead of the Bank of England's (BoE) November 5 monetary policy meeting. Policy hawks Greene, Mann, and Pill are advocating for a rate increase, with Governor Bailey potentially joining the hawkish consensus. Upcoming UK labor market, retail sales, and CPI releases serve as decisive catalysts. Stronger inflation prints will reinforce market bets on interest rate hikes, while a sharp slowdown in core CPI below 2.4% is required to embolden MPC doves. Sterling sentiment is further supported by Prime Minister Burnham's constructive comments regarding EU rapprochement and easing concerns over fiscal budget measures.

GBPUSD is trading near the 1.3330 level after rebounding from 11-month lows around 1.3140. Immediate resistance holds at 1.3370, which is above the steep short-term downtrend line. Even higher, the 1.3400 round number and the 1.3430 barrier, which overlaps with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) could be the next targets. Hotter-than-expected inflation data will propel cable higher, whereas softer CPI figures risk a breakdown toward 1.3285. 

Geopolitics propel oil – WTI crude oil

Crude oil dipped below 100.00 on Monday but retained most of last week’s 10% surge as geopolitical conflicts keep supply risks elevated. Middle East tensions rose after a Saudi helicopter crashed near the Yemeni border during clashes with Iran-backed Houthis, who targeted the Yanbu export hub. Meanwhile, Iran’s IRGC navy asserted strict control over the Strait of Hormuz after three tankers sustained damage over the weekend. In Europe, Ukrainian drone strikes hit an oil export terminal and storage depot in St. Petersburg. Downside momentum was capped after US President Donald Trump announced a diesel export agreement with Russia and delayed additional sanctions to protect peace negotiations.

WTI crude oil remains in a broader bullish structure above its key ascending trendline, with current downward pressure indicating a temporary technical correction. A bullish rebound off the 96.40 support level is expected to reignite upward momentum, driving prices back toward the recent peak at 101.34 before opening the door to the major September 15 high at 106.90. Technical momentum indicators align with this short-term pull-back scenario.