EUR/USD – Two Hikes, Two Different Reasons

Two central banks, two opposite realities. The ECB is preparing to hike rates despite PMI collapsing to 47.5—forced by Iran-war inflation, not growth. The Fed is tightening into a manufacturing boom. Can Lagarde's hawkish signal overcome deteriorating fundamentals, or will EUR/USD test March lows?
Born2trade | 164 hari yang lalu

EUR/USD sits at 1.1594, near the lower end of its 2026 range.

Eurozone composite PMI fell to 47.5, the worst reading since late 2023. The economy is contracting. At the same time, Iran-war energy costs are pushing inflation back toward 4%. Despite weak data, markets are pricing a European Central Bank hike on 11 June with high conviction.

Meanwhile, US manufacturing PMI hit a four-year high. The US is tightening into strength. Europe is tightening into weakness. Historically, the dollar wins that setup.

A hike alone may not be enough if growth keeps deteriorating. The pair needs both a hike and a clear signal from Lagarde that more are coming.

Key levels:

  • Resistance: 1.1645, then 1.1680 and 1.1733
  • Support: 1.1500, then 1.1435 (March 15 low)

By Born2trade market research department

Risk Disclaimer: All research and/or forecasts above reflect the author's personal opinion and cannot be treated as trading advice. born2trade is not responsible for any trading results based on any information in this article. Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose all of your invested funds. Forex and CFD trading may not be suitable for all investors. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and, if necessary, seek independent advice.

Born2trade
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