EUR/USD Stuck in Consolidation: Rumours Abound, but Facts Remain Scarce

Key factors driving EUR/USD movements

The dollar received additional support from signs of progress in trade discussions with Japan and South Korea.

Earlier in the week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasised that substantial US-China negotiations would require significant tariff reductions, highlighting the importance of reducing tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

Trump also softened his stance on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, saying he had no plans to replace him. This statement helped alleviate investor uncertainty regarding the Fed’s leadership.

Meanwhile, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack suggested that an interest rate cut could materialise as early as June, contingent on economic data. While this initially weighed on the dollar, the currency regained strength amid renewed trade optimism.

Technical analysis: EUR/USD

H4 chart 

The EUR/USD pair has formed a consolidation range around 1.1358. We anticipate the downward wave to continue towards 1.1280, followed by a potential corrective rebound to 1.1427. A subsequent decline towards 1.1045 remains plausible. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line firmly below zero and pointing downward.

H1 chart 

On the hourly chart, the pair continues its downward trajectory towards 1.1280, with this level likely to be tested imminently. A corrective pullback towards 1.1427 may follow. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this outlook, with its signal line currently below 20 and poised for an upward swing towards 80.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD remains confined within a consolidation phase, with trade developments and Fed policy expectations driving near-term volatility. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels for confirmation of the next directional move.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author's particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.