EUR/USD Under Pressure Despite Weaker US Dollar

Recent reports suggest the US and EU are nearing a trade agreement, which would impose tariffs of 15% on most European goods, mirroring the recent deal struck with Japan.

Amid this backdrop, monetary policy is coming into sharper focus. Markets expect the Fed to keep rates on hold at its upcoming meeting, as policymakers monitor the potential inflationary impact of new tariffs.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has softened his tone towards Fed Chair Jerome Powell following a historic visit to the central bank’s headquarters. Trump reiterated that he has no intention of removing Powell, despite earlier speculation.

Interest rate futures currently reflect expectations of a rate cut totalling 43 basis points by the end of 2025, with the consensus forecast anticipating one cut in September and another in December.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

The EUR/USD has completed an upward wave towards 1.1788 on the H4 chart. Today, we expect a downward impulse to 1.1723, followed by a potential rebound to 1.1755. The pair is likely to enter a consolidation range near the peak of this upward wave, with a possible breakout to the downside towards 1.1670 as the primary target. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains above zero but is trending sharply downward.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 timeframe, the pair is forming the initial structure of a downward wave targeting 1.1723. The first local target at 1.1733 has already been met. A corrective rise to 1.1755 may follow before another decline towards 1.1723. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this outlook, with its signal line below 50 and pointing firmly downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD faces near-term pressure, but broader dollar weakness persists. Traders should monitor developments in trade policy and forthcoming Fed communications for directional cues, while technicals suggest further consolidation with a bearish bias.

DisclaimerAny forecasts contained herein are based on the author's particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.