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Global Bond Markets Signal the End of the Easy-Money Era
Last week, the global bond markets endured a rather brutal sell-off. Yields on 30-year US Treasuries climbed to their highest levels in nearly two decades, whilst long-dated government bond yields in both UK and Japan reached their multi-year highs, respectively. The new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Mr. Kevin Warsh, now faces what can only be described as an exceptionally awkward challenge. Inflation is accelerating across most major economies amid the conflict in the Middle East, and an increasing number of central-bank officials are openly signaling the possibility of further interest-rate rises. Moreover, the European Central Bank is already considering another rate increase at its June meeting.
At the same time, markets are becoming increasingly concerned that the global economy may be entering a phase in which central banks are no longer capable of simultaneously supporting growth, containing inflation, and stabilizing bond markets. Rising yields are themselves gradually becoming a systemic problem: expensive money is placing mounting pressure upon property markets, corporate balance sheets, and government finances alike. That is precisely why investors are reacting so nervously to virtually every remark from the Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of England — markets are beginning to recognize that the era of ultra-cheap liquidity, upon which asset prices have relied for much of the past fifteen years, may genuinely be drawing to a close.
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