Gold surges past 3,800: What’s next for Q4 2025?
Gold has rallied impressively in 2025, surging over 45% year-to-date and gaining 10% in September alone. The record run is continuing today, breaking above the 3,800 level for the first time. This bullish momentum has been fueled by expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts, persistent inflationary pressures, and elevated geopolitical risks. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core PCE, held steady at 2.9% in August, reinforcing market sentiment for continued monetary easing.
Looking ahead to Q4, gold is expected to maintain its bullish bias, trading well above its long-term ascending trend line. However, a corrective pullback cannot be ruled out, especially after six consecutive weeks of gains. Key resistance levels lie at 3,900 and 4,000, while downside risks could expose support zones at 3,600, 3,500, and 3,440, which is the mid-level of the Bollinger band. A deeper retracement may test the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 3,340, which aligns with the rising trend line.
Technically, momentum indicators continue to favor the upside. The MACD remains above its signal and zero lines, and the RSI is trending higher in overbought territory, suggesting sustained buying interest.
To sum up, as the outlook for gold remains broadly positive heading into the final quarter of 2025, investors should remain cautious of potential short-term corrections.
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