Hawkish Fed Minutes Lift the Dollar; Wall Street and Gold Slide

ATFX Market Outlook – Oct 8th, 2026

Hawkish Fed Minutes Lift the Dollar; Wall Street and Gold Slide

Key Takeaways:

Fed minutes showed most policymakers see another rate hike by year-end, and U.S. inflation expectations hit their highest since May 2023, lifting the Dollar (+0.42% to 102.27). Wall Street pulled back from record highs, gold fell 1.27% to $4,110.65, and Bitcoin slipped toward $84,000 as oil and yields rose.

Today’s Focus:

The ECB meeting minutes and BoE Governor Bailey’s speech may steer the Euro and Pound as French bond yields keep climbing. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (forecast 200K vs. 197K prior) follow, while Iran-related headlines remain a key oil risk.

Global Market Review:

Wall Street closed lower (Dow -0.66% to 51,179, S&P 500 -0.22% to 7,801, Nasdaq -0.22% to 27,538). The 2-year yield fell 2.9 bps to 4.768% while the 10-year edged up 0.5 bps to 5.284%. Brent rose 0.36% to $100.94 as the Pentagon readied possible strikes against Iran, while WTI slipped 0.56% to $88.96.

Important Economic Calendar

October 8 (GMT+8)

19:30 EU ECB Meeting Minutes ***

20:15 UK BoE Governor Bailey Speech ***

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

October 9 (GMT+8)

20:30 CA Unemployment Rate SEP **

22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel OCT ***

[Market Analysis]

EUR/USD

Resistance: 1.1217/1.1271

Support: 1.1176/1.1134

Analyst’s View: EUR/USD gave back its bounce as French bond yields climbed again, keeping the pair within a descending channel. A break above 1.1217/1.1271 would ease pressure, while a break below 1.1176 would expose 1.1134.

Bias: Bearish; watch whether 1.1176 holds

GBP/USD

Resistance: 1.3232/1.3265

Support: 1.3180/1.3155

Analyst’s View: GBP/USD slid back to the bottom of its range as the bond selloff resumed. Reclaiming 1.3232/1.3265 is needed to ease pressure, while a break below 1.3180 exposes 1.3155.

Bias: Cautiously Bearish; watch BoE Governor Bailey

USD/JPY

Resistance: 158.31/158.65

Support: 157.40/157.01

Analyst’s View: USD/JPY traded around 158 despite stronger Japanese pay data, as the Dollar held its gains. A break above 158.31/158.65 could extend the rise, while a loss of 157.40 shifts focus to 157.01.

Bias: Neutral to Mild Bullish; watch the 158.31/158.65 zone

U.S. Crude Oil Futures DEC

Resistance: 90.66/91.83

Support: 88.02/86.87

Analyst’s View: Middle East supply jitters and possible U.S. strikes on Iran support oil, but WTI remains in a descending channel below $90.66. A break above $91.83 would ease downside pressure, while a break below $88.02 exposes $86.87.

Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bearish; watch geopolitical headlines

Spot Gold & Spot Silver

Spot Gold Resistance: 4142/4156

Spot Gold Support: 4084/4066

Spot Silver Resistance: 61.08/61.71

Spot Silver Support: 58.47/57.86

Analyst’s View: Gold fell 1.27% as hawkish Fed minutes and a firmer Dollar weighed on the metal. It is rebounding toward $4,142/$4,156, and a break below $4,084 would expose $4066. Silver cracked below $60, with bears eyeing lower levels, and a drop below $58.47 risks $57.86.

Bias: Gold Neutral to Cautiously Bearish; Silver Cautiously Bearish

U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30)

Resistance: 51400/51660

Support: 51078/50813

Analyst’s View: The Dow fell 0.66% as hawkish Fed minutes pressured equities. While it holds within a rising channel, a break above 51400/51660 would strengthen the recovery, and a loss of 51078 puts 50813 in focus.

Bias: Neutral; watch 51078 support

U.S. Nasdaq Index (NAS100)

Resistance: 31334/31418

Support: 31082/30973

Analyst’s View: Tech stocks paused after reaching record highs, but NAS100 remains in a rising channel above 31082/30973. A break above 31334/31418 would resume the uptrend, while a loss of support would signal a deeper pullback.

Bias: Bullish; watch the 31082/30973 support zone

Bitcoin (BTC)

Resistance: 84357/84907

Support: 81476/80777

Analyst’s View: Bitcoin slipped toward $84,000 as rising oil and yields pressured risk appetite, and it now trades below the descending channel resistance. A break above 84357/84907 would ease pressure, while losing $81,476 exposes $80,777.

Bias: Cautiously Bearish; watch the 84357–84907 zone.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

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