Markets experience subdued activity due to the Good Friday holiday: April 18, 2025

Markets experience subdued activity due to the Good Friday holiday: April 18, 2025

Global financial markets on April 18, 2025, are experiencing subdued activity due to the Good Friday holiday, with thin trading volumes amplifying reactions to US-China trade developments and Federal Reserve rhetoric. Optimism from US President Donald Trump’s comments on a potential US-China trade deal within weeks is tempered by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s warnings of stagflation risks, keeping the US Dollar under pressure. Stronger oil prices and safe-haven flows influence currency pairs, while gold sees profit-taking after a record high. Key US data and Fed speak today could sway sentiment further.

AUD/USD Subdued Despite Trade Deal Hopes

Current Level: AUD/USD hovers near 0.6350, pausing its seven-day rally amid holiday-thinned trading.

Key Drivers: Trump’s optimistic tone on a US-China trade deal (potentially within 3-4 weeks) and exemptions on tech products from China boost Australia’s commodity export outlook. However, Powell’s stagflation concerns and a hawkish Fed stance (first rate cut now expected in July) limit USD weakness, capping AUD gains. Australia’s recent jobs data (4.1% unemployment, 17.2K part-time jobs added) supports modest optimism.

Technical Outlook: Support at 0.6300; resistance at 0.6408. Thin volumes may exaggerate moves today.

 Gold Retreats on Profit-Taking

Current Level: Gold (XAU/USD) edges lower to around $3,319, down from its all-time high of $3,358.

Market Dynamics: Profit-taking ahead of the Easter weekend pressures prices, but safe-haven demand persists due to US-China trade uncertainties and global recession fears. Powell’s hawkish comments reduce June rate-cut odds, supporting a modest USD bounce that weighs on gold. Fed’s Mary Daly’s speech today could provide further clues.

Technical View: Support at $3,300, with $3,229 as the next level; resistance at $3,357. RSI remains overbought but not extreme, suggesting potential for further upside.

 USD/CHF Pressured by Safe-Haven CHF

Current Level: USD/CHF trades around 0.8180, below 0.8200, near its strongest level since 2011 for CHF.

Influencing Factors: Switzerland’s trade surplus widened to CHF 6.35 billion in March, driven by a 12.6% export surge, bolstering the safe-haven Swiss Franc. USD weakness persists amid trade war fallout and stagflation fears, with markets pricing in 86 bps of Fed rate cuts by end-2025. Trump’s trade deal optimism slightly curbs CHF demand.

Key Levels: Support at 0.8100; resistance at 0.8200. Holiday-driven low liquidity may amplify volatility.

 EUR/USD Holds Bullish BiasCurrent Level: EUR/USD strengthens to near 1.1370, supported by trade deal hopes.

Technical Outlook: The pair remains above the 100-day EMA, with the 14-day RSI signaling bullish momentum. Resistance at 1.1400-1.1415; support at 1.1280, with 1.1100 as a key level. A break above 1.1415 could target 1.1495.

Fundamental Drivers: Trump’s positive remarks on US-EU trade talks, including with Italy’s PM Giorgia Meloni, lift the Euro. The ECB’s recent 25 bps rate cut to 2.40% and Powell’s stagflation warnings keep USD subdued, though holiday trading limits moves.

 WTI Oil Rallies on Supply Concerns

Current Level: WTI crude oil climbs to a two-week high near $63.50.

Key Influences: Fresh US sanctions on Iranian oil exports raise supply concerns, boosting prices. Trump’s optimism on US-EU trade talks supports global demand expectations. However, a 515,000-barrel rise in US crude stockpiles (per EIA) tempers gains. OPEC+’s flexibility to cut production if needed adds stability.

Outlook: Resistance at $64.00; support at $62.00. Geopolitical developments remain critical.

 Broader Market ContextMarkets on April 18, 2025, are navigating a complex mix of trade deal optimism and stagflation fears, with holiday-thinned trading amplifying potential volatility. AUD/USD and EUR/USD hold steady, supported by USD weakness and positive trade talk signals, while USD/CHF faces pressure from a strong CHF. Gold sees profit-taking but remains underpinned by safe-haven demand, and WTI oil rallies on supply concerns. Today’s US data (Jobless Claims, Building Permits) and Fed’s Mary Daly’s speech could drive short-term moves, with Trump’s tariff policies and trade negotiations remaining pivotal.

Stay tuned for further updates from Moneta Markets.