Middle East Tensions Escalate; ECB Decision in Focus

ATFX Market Outlook - 23rd July 2026

Middle East Tensions Escalate; ECB Decision in Focus

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

U.S.–Iran hostilities intensified, with President Trump threatening strikes on Iranian infrastructure while Iran‑backed Houthi rebels threatened shipping. Supply concerns lifted oil prices further, while gold extended its rebound on technical buying. 

Tonight’s ECB decision is expected to keep rates unchanged. Eurozone inflation has eased, but renewed U.S.–Iran tensions have pushed energy prices higher. Whether the ECB emphasises inflation uncertainty will be key. President Lagarde’s press conference—particularly any hints about the September meeting—will be closely scrutinised.

Global Market Review

U.S. equities closed lower Wednesday as traders awaited earnings from major tech firms and weighed risks of escalating Middle East conflict.

Dow ‑0.01%, S&P 500 ‑0.14%, Nasdaq ‑0.57%.

Gold hit two‑week highs, closing +1.3%, supported by a softer dollar and technical buying, despite Treasury yields hovering near multi‑month highs.

Oil settled at its highest since June 11 as U.S.–Iran hostilities escalated.

Key Events Today:

09:30 AU Unemployment Rate JUN **

20:15 ECB Interest Rate Decision ***

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

20:45 ECB Press Conference ***

July 24 (GMT+8)

07:00 AU Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUL **

07:30 JP Core CPI YoY JUN **

08:30 JP Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUL **

14:00 GB Retail Sales JUN **

15:55 EU GERMANY Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUL **

16:00 EU Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUL **

16:30 GB Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUL **

20:00 US Building Permits Final JUN **

21:45 US Manufacturing & Services & Composite PMI Flash JUL ***

22:00 US New Home Sales JUN **

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1437 / 1.1454

Support: 1.1394 / 1.1380

EUR/USD consolidated above 1.1400 Wednesday, ending a four‑day losing streak. Middle East tensions capped upside ahead of the ECB decision.

Analyst View: Testing resistance near 1.1420 (daily MAs). A hawkish hint for September could lift EUR/USD above key resistance; a cautious stance may keep it range‑bound.

Bias: Mild rebound

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3460 / 1.3510

Support: 1.3349 / 1.3300

Sterling traded below 1.3400 Wednesday after UK June CPI came in softer than expected, while investors monitored Middle East developments.

Analyst View: Tested 20‑day MA, hitting one‑week lows but holding support. A rebound above 1.3400 requires support to hold; otherwise, risk of decline toward 1.3350.

Bias: Short‑term bearish

USDJPY

Resistance: 163.39 / 163.75

Support: 162.84 / 162.49

Yen rebounded from 40‑year lows Wednesday as traders weighed possible Tokyo intervention and BoJ rate hikes. USD/JPY remained above 163.

Analyst View: After dipping to 162.66, USD/JPY recovered most losses. Bulls continue probing at high levels.

Bias: Range consolidation

US Crude Oil Futures (SEP)

Resistance: 89.22 / 90.50

Support: 86.29 / 84.99

Oil extended gains Wednesday, briefly breaking $89 intraday, closing at its highest since June 11 as supply risks mounted.

Analyst View: Oil opened higher around $88. If conflict headlines persist, $90 could be the next target.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4167 / 4203

Support: 4110 / 4080

Spot Silver (XAG/USD)

Resistance: 60.73 / 61.43

Support: 58.44 / 57.74

Gold rose for a fourth day Wednesday, holding above $4,100 as geopolitical uncertainty sustained safe‑haven demand. Silver also gained.

Analyst View: Gold approaching July 6 highs near $4,200. Watch for slowing momentum at resistance.

Bias: Mildly bullish

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 52,831 / 53,070

Support: 52,068 / 51,833

U.S. equities slipped Wednesday on Middle East tensions and global growth concerns. Dow retreated from three‑day highs.

Analyst View: Rejected at daily MAs, likely to remain range‑bound at lower levels.

Bias: Low‑level consolidation

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 29,236 / 29,429

Support: 28,848 / 28,608

Tech stocks diverged Wednesday: Nvidia and Broadcom rose, while SpaceX plunged over 5% on short‑selling pressure. Alphabet’s earnings after hours showed 2026 capex plans weighed on shares.

Analyst View: Nasdaq failed to extend gains, capped below 10‑day MA. Watch Intel earnings for guidance.

Bias: Rebound capped

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 67,426 / 68,602

Support: 65,576 / 64,416

Bitcoin edged lower Wednesday, steadying near five‑week highs as focus shifted to U.S. regulatory debates and Middle East tensions.

Analyst View: After two days of gains, BTC/USD pulled back from highs, testing below $66k. Weakening momentum may challenge 10‑day MA support near $65k.

Bias: High‑level pullback

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