Oil Remains Elevated as Supply Risks Deepen

Oil prices remained firmly elevated at the start of the week, with WTI holding at $100.98 and Brent advancing 2.6% to $115.45 per barrel. The move reflects growing concern over supply security, with conflict in the Middle East raising the risk of more severe and sustained disruption across global energy flows.

That concern has become more pronounced with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, forcing producers to depend more heavily on alternative export infrastructure. In that context, Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline has taken on greater strategic importance, with capacity to transport up to 6 million barrels per day to the Red Sea. While this offers an important alternative route, it also brings fresh uncertainty, as any threat to that infrastructure could quickly tighten the market further.

The wider geopolitical backdrop continues to reinforce that risk premium. Reports suggesting the United States may be considering an operation involving nearly 1,000 pounds of uranium in Iran have added to concerns over further escalation, while attacks linked to regional actors have heightened fears around the security of shipping lanes and energy assets. As a result, oil markets are no longer pricing only immediate disruption, but also the possibility of a more sustained period of instability.

From a technical standpoint, crude continues to trade within a strong upward structure, even as the latest rally begins to consolidate. Price has stabilised near the psychological $100 level after advancing towards a recent high of 119.40. Immediate support is seen at 100.00, followed by 95.00 and 90.00, while resistance stands at 102.00, 105.00 and 110.00. For now, the current pause appears more consistent with consolidation than reversal, although elevated levels continue to leave the market sensitive to sharp swings in sentiment.

Explore how geopolitical risk, supply disruption and inflation pressures are shaping the outlook for oil and the wider energy market in this article.