Tariff Threats Keep Markets Cautious; Precious Metals Hold Near Highs

ATFX Market Outlook 20th January 2026

Tariff Threats Keep Markets Cautious; Precious Metals Hold Near Highs

Market Highlight

U.S. equity markets were closed on Monday due to a public holiday, while the U.S. dollar index weakened. Investors grew increasingly nervous after former President Donald Trump issued fresh tariff threats against Europe over the Greenland issue. Amid rising risk aversion, market participants shifted towards safe-haven currencies, with the euro, the British pound, and the Swiss franc posting gains.

Gold and silver both surged to record highs, driven by safe-haven demand linked to the Greenland dispute. Spot gold settled at $4,669.70 per ounce, up 1.63%, after earlier hitting a record high of $4,689.39. Oil prices were steady, as easing domestic unrest in Iran reduced the likelihood of U.S. military action that could disrupt supplies from the major oil producer. At the same time, market focus has increasingly turned to developments surrounding Greenland.

Key Outlook 

The UK is set to release its latest employment report. Previous data showed the unemployment rate easing from a recent high of 5%. If the upcoming report confirms a further decline, it could support the British pound. However, recent indicators point to rising layoff pressures in the UK. Should unemployment edge higher again, markets are likely to reinforce expectations that the Bank of England may cut interest rates at least twice this year. In addition, the Eurozone and Germany will publish their January ZEW Economic Sentiment Index figures, with investors watching closely to see whether the recent improvement trend continues.

Key Data and Events Today:15:00 GB Unemployment Rate NOV **15:00 EU GERMANY PPI DEC **18:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index JAN **

Tomorrow:NYMEX Crude Oil February Futures Expire05:30 US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock ***15:00 GB CPI & PPI DEC ***17:00 IEA Monthly Oil Market Report **23:00 US Pending Home Sales DEC **23:00 US Building Permits SEP **

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1689/1.1711

Support: 1.1593/1.1570

EUR/USD rebounds towards 1.1640 as the dollar softens amid safe-haven flows tied to Greenland-related tariff threats. Technically, the pair remains within a descending channel, with rallies potentially capped at the 1.1689–1.1711 resistance zone. Failure to clear this area leaves downside risks towards 1.1593–1.1570 support.

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3470/1.3508

Support: 1.3350/1.3312

GBP/USD rebounds towards 1.3420, supported by broad USD weakness and improved sentiment after the UK opposed a trade war. Technically, price remains capped by the descending trendline and the 1.3470–1.3508 resistance zone, keeping the move corrective. Failure to break higher leaves 1.3350–1.3312 support in focus.

USDJPY

Resistance: 158.88/159.47

Support: 157.53/156.93

USD/JPY slips towards 157.9 as rising trade and geopolitical tensions boost yen safe-haven demand. Technically, the pair pulled back after failing to break through the 158.88–159.47 resistance zone and is now testing trendline support. A break below 157.53–156.93 could deepen the near-term correction.

US Crude Oil Futures (FEB)

Resistance: 60.78/61.57

Support: 58.27/57.49

WTI trades around $59.36 as easing unrest in Iran reduces near-term supply risks. Attention has shifted to potential demand headwinds from rising US–EU trade tensions, keeping upside capped. Technically, prices remain constrained below $60.78–$61.57 resistance, with $58.27–$57.49 support key on the downside.

Spot Gold

Resistance: 4720/4752

Support: 4615/4582

Spot Silver

Resistance: 95.69/97.73

Support: 90.83/89.25

Spot gold consolidates near $4,670 after reaching a record high of $4,690, with safe-haven demand underpinned by tariff threats, rising trade tensions, and a softer dollar. Technically, prices remain within an ascending channel, holding above the $4,615–$4,582 support zone. A break above the $4,720–$4,752 resistance could extend the upside.

Dow Futures

Resistance: 49772/50088

Support: 49064/48742

The Dow Futures softened as renewed trade-war rhetoric and Greenland-related tensions weighed on risk sentiment. Political uncertainty and holiday-thinned liquidity kept momentum muted. Technically, the index is consolidating within an ascending channel, with 49,772–50,088 resistance capping gains and 49,064–48,742 support acting as the near-term floor.

NAS100

Resistance: 25659/25835

Support: 25240/25100

The NAS100 trades cautiously within a range as global trade tensions weigh on growth stocks. Although tech fundamentals remain intact, risk-off flows cap upside momentum. Technically, the price is capped by the 25,659–25,835 resistance zone, while the 25,240–25,100 support zone acts as a key near-term buffer.

BTC      

· Resistance: 94652/95838

· Support: 90747/89541

Bitcoin slips towards $92,500 as Trump’s Greenland-related tariff threats fuel broad risk-off sentiment. Capital rotation into traditional safe havens, alongside delays to a U.S. crypto regulatory bill, continues to cap crypto demand. Technically, BTC is capped by the $94,652–95,838 resistance zone, with $90,747–89,541 acting as key near-term support.

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