Technical Outlook on EUR/USD, GOLD, US500

French political showdown --> EUR/USD

It will be a tough week in France as the National Assembly begins debating the revenue section of the budget on Tuesday, covering tax measures and fiscal adjustments before reviewing expenditure cuts. The vote serves as a major structural test of whether Marine Le Pen’s left-wing opposition will reject the revenue bill or whether Prime Minister Lecornu, leading a minority government, will trigger Article 49.3 to bypass parliament, opening a window for a no-confidence motion.

With EUR/USD resuming its 2026 downward trajectory, deteriorating French political stability combined with widening French-German bond yield spreads could inject fresh selling pressure, driving the pair toward the 1.1100 handle. A decisive break below the 1.1050 support zone could open the door for extended losses toward the 1.0900 area.

Conversely, a political relief rally could bring buyers back into play. However, a broader structural recovery requires a daily close back above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 1.1320 resistance.

US CPI -->GOLD

US CPI data is slated for release on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Forecasts point to headline inflation accelerating to 3.6% y/y in September from 3.4% previously, while the core CPI is projected to edge higher from 2.4% to 2.5%.

While Fed speakers have downplayed the likelihood of a 25-bps rate hike in October, a hotter-than-expected inflation print could reignite policy debate, driving gold back down to test key support near 4,130. The precious metal maintains a solid floor in this region following September's steep sell-off; however, failure to defend this zone could trigger a downside expansion toward 4,070, with 4,000 serving as the critical macro floor.

If the inflation data undershoots expectations, gold could extend its recent recovery attempt. Nonetheless, given the already low expectations for an October rate hike, a stronger bullish catalyst will be needed to sustain a meaningful upside breakout.

Q3 Earnings season --> US500

The Q3 earnings season kicks off Tuesday as banking behemoths JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs report before the opening bell. Market participants will scrutinize forward guidance for signs of economic resilience amid a double-tightening dynamic driven by elevated bond yields and tightening monetary policy.

Strikingly, the earnings cycle starts at a crucial point for the US500, which is consolidating near last week’s new all-time high of 7,844. Upbeat earnings and robust credit demand metrics could initiate a fresh bullish expansion leg, initially testing 7,900 before setting up a move toward 8,040. Yet, a rally beyond 8,000 might be a target contingent on sustained AI sector momentum.

To the downside, the 20- and 50-day SMAs coupled with the 7,685 support continue to underpin the broader bullish bias, keeping the medium-term picture neutral-to-bullish despite the recent pickup to a fresh all-time high. A breakdown below 7,600 would invalidate immediate bullish setups and trigger accelerated selling.