Technical Outlook on EURUSD, GOLD, US100

Geopolitics, tariffs → GOLD

Gold showed only a muted reaction to Monday’s surge in oil prices and Treasury yields. While the world watched Spain’s World Cup victory, the US-Iran conflict intensified for a ninth consecutive day, with attacks across the Gulf, continued strikes on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and damage to critical infrastructure raising fears of a broader regional conflict. Tehran warned that no oil would pass through the strait as long as US strikes continue, while President Trump offered little clarity on the next steps, pushing oil prices to a fresh monthly high and lifting bond yields.

Geopolitical risks might be accompanied by renewed trade uncertainty later this week. The Trump administration’s temporary 10% Section 122 global import tariffs expire on Friday, a new 25% tariff on Brazilian imports is set to take effect, and investors continue to monitor tensions with China.

Despite these risks, gold remains resilient above its support trendline from May 2025. However, the technical outlook remains cautious, with the 20-day SMA capping upside near 4,080. A break below the 3,950 floor could expose the 3,800 area.

ECB policy meeting, flash PMIs → EUR/USD

The European Central Bank (ECB) concludes its final policy meeting before the summer break on Thursday, with EUR/USD still struggling to establish direction after its late-June drop to a one-year low of 1.1323.

The ECB is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 2.25% following June’s hike, although markets continue to price in at least one rate hike by the end of the year. While inflation eased in June, policymakers are unlikely to sound complacent as higher oil prices threaten to revive price pressures. With no updated economic projections on the agenda, investors will focus on the ECB’s forward guidance, particularly any comments on inflation risks, growth prospects, and President Lagarde’s future at the ECB. Friday’s flash S&P Global PMIs for July could provide the next catalyst if the meeting proves uneventful, with forecasts pointing to a mild improvement.

Technically, EUR/USD remains under pressure, but support around 1.1420 continues to hold, keeping hopes alive for a bounce back into the 1.1500 zone. A step below 1.1350 could revive the broader 2026 downtrend.

Alphabet, Tesla earnings → US100

Wall Street will be in focus this week as Alphabet and Tesla report earnings on Wednesday, followed by Intel on Thursday. Concerns over a potential delay to Google's Gemini 3.5 Pro release and tighter trading restrictions in Asia triggered a sharp selloff last week, dragging the US100 almost 5% lower to 28,219.

The decline followed a rejection at the 20- and 50-day SMAs and confirmed a bearish triangle breakout, leaving the near-term outlook negative. Investors will closely watch AI monetization, capital spending, and profit margins for evidence that high valuations remain justified. With geopolitical tensions disrupting energy markets and supply chains, and expectations for further rate hikes lingering, companies may struggle to deliver optimistic guidance.