The Golden Pyramid: $4,000 → $5,600 → $4,000. What Comes Next?

Gold's chart over the past nine months really does look like an almost perfect pyramid.

Gold was trading at around $4,000 per ounce in early November 2025. A powerful rally then began, and by 29 January 2026 the price had approached $5,600. Now the pyramid has started to collapse, bringing gold back to $4,000.

The key question is: is this the base for a new wave of growth, or does the "golden pyramid" still have another level to fall?

📉 Bearish scenario: $3,200–3,450

The pressure on gold is real. A strong US dollar, high borrowing costs and expectations of further Fed tightening are working against an asset that doesn't generate interest income. These factors have already led major banks to revise their forecasts.

The World Gold Council believes gold could lose another 5-15% from its late-June levels if economic growth remains strong, bond yields stay high and geopolitical tensions ease. With gold trading near $4,000, the lower end of this scenario would be around $3,400. At the same time, the WGC notes that a decline of more than 10% could attract buyers looking to buy gold at lower prices.

Reuters also cites market participants who see support slightly below $3,900, helped by central bank buying. This makes $3,200 look more like a stress scenario than the base case.

📈 Bullish scenario: first $4,500, then $5,000

There are considerably more supporters of this scenario.

The World Gold Council believes that weaker economic conditions, a new geopolitical shock, softer expectations for interest rates, or strong buying during the current decline could push gold back towards $4,500 and above.

ING, despite lowering its forecasts, still expects an average gold price of around $4,300 in Q3 and $4,600 in Q4 2026. Commerzbank lowered its year-end forecast on 28 July but still expects gold to reach $4,500. Bank of America cut its average 2026 forecast to $4,360 but believes $5,000 remains achievable once the Fed's tightening cycle comes to an end.

This creates an interesting picture. Analysts have become much more cautious after January's gold rush, but $4,500 still looks like a realistic target, while $5,000 hasn't been ruled out.

🔎 The key level now is $4,000

StoneX notes that gold has held this support area since late June and has remained in a narrow range for so long that a strong breakout is becoming increasingly likely.

That's what makes the current point on the chart especially interesting.

If $4,000 holds, the golden pyramid could become a base for a new move towards $4,500-5,000. If this support is clearly broken, the market could first test $3,900, followed by $3,400-3,450.

A return to the top of the pyramid near $5,600, however, would require a much stronger catalyst – a sharp shift towards easier Fed policy, a new geopolitical shock or another wave of global demand for safe-haven assets.

So what are we looking at: the Golden Pyramid or the Golden Cross?

$3,400, $4,500 or back above $5,000?

By Born2trade market research department

Risk Disclaimer: All research and/or forecasts above reflect the author's personal opinion and cannot be treated as trading advice. Born2trade is not responsible for any trading results based on any information in this article. Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose all of your invested funds. Forex and CFD trading may not be suitable for all investors. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and, if necessary, seek independent advice.