Today Fundamental Analysis: US stock indices close higher driven by AI optimism

U.S. markets finished the first half of 2026 on a strong note, although stock futures edged slightly lower ahead of Wednesday’s session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained around 9% in the first six months of the year, its best first-half performance since 2021, while the S&P 500 rose more than 9%, the Nasdaq advanced nearly 13%, and the Russell 2000 surged nearly 22%, marking its strongest first half since 1991.

The rally has been driven largely by artificial intelligence and semiconductor stocks, with chipmakers such as Intel, Micron, and AMD adding a combined $2 trillion in market value during the second quarter.

In currency markets, the Japanese yen weakened to its lowest level in 40 years as the USDJPY pair rose above 162.30, increasing speculation that Japanese authorities could intervene to stabilize the currency. Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific markets were mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi posting gains, while Australian and Chinese equities traded little changed.

Investors are now turning their attention to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the ECB Forum, as well as key U.S. economic data including the ADP employment report, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Global Manufacturing PMI. These releases could provide further clues on the Fed’s next policy move, with markets continuing to assess the possibility of additional interest rate hikes.

Gold prices extended their decline for a third consecutive session, falling below the $4,000 per ounce psychological level and remaining near their lowest levels since November 2025. The selloff has been driven by a stronger U.S. dollar, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again this year.

The dollar has also benefited from ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations. At the same time, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to fuel inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations of a more hawkish Fed.

Recent U.S. economic data also strengthened the case for higher interest rates. Job openings rose to a two-year high in May, consumer confidence improved in June, and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack indicated that further rate hikes remain possible if inflation fails to ease.