Week Ahead: RBA, BoE and US Jobs Data Put AUDUSD, GBPUSD and Gold in Focus

Key Takeaways

• Blended Q3 S&P 500 earnings growth reached 30.2%, but aggregate earnings beat estimates by only 1.9%, well below the five-year average of 7.5%.
• Amazon’s operating cash flow rose 29% to $168.3 billion, yet free cash flow turned to a $42.4 billion outflow as AI-related capital spending climbed.
• The RBA (3 November) and Bank of England (5 November) are both forecast to raise rates by 25 basis points, with guidance on further tightening likely to matter more than the decisions themselves.
• US midterm elections on 3 November and Friday’s jobs report could shift the dollar, gold and Bitcoin.
• Traders are watching USDX, AUDUSD, GBPUSD, XAUUSD and BTCUSD as markets position around these events.

Markets enter the week with corporate profits still expanding, but with less room for disappointment. FactSet’s 30 October update put blended third-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth at 30.2%, up from 29.5% a week earlier. Roughly 300 S&P 500 companies had reported, and about 82% beat estimates. All 11 sectors posted year-on-year earnings growth, seven of them in double digits. However, the size of the beats has shrunk, and a profitable company can still see its shares fall if results or guidance miss expectations.

Why Traders Are Watching Global Markets

Earnings leadership is broadening. The Magnificent Seven’s blended Q3 earnings growth slipped to 22.6% from 33.6% a month earlier. If estimates hold, it would be the first time since Q4 2022 that the group trails the rest of the index. Industrial results support the wider picture: GE Aerospace reported third-quarter orders of $19.0 billion, up 49% year on year, and Caterpillar lifted sales and revenues 17% to $20.7 billion with a record backlog. These figures do not show every part of the economy accelerating, but they give traders a reason to watch market breadth alongside technology performance.

AI spending adds a second layer of complexity. AWS third-quarter sales rose 39% to $46.0 billion, but Amazon’s free cash flow for the 12 months to 30 September 2026 fell to an outflow of $42.4 billion because of higher investment in property and equipment. New data centres and chips must generate enough revenue to cover their cost, maintenance and eventual replacement.

Valuations offer some support, though they depend on forecasts holding. FactSet projects S&P 500 earnings growth of 28.4% for Q4 and 32.9% for full-year 2026. The forward price-to-earnings ratio of 18.7 sits below the five-year average of 19.8 and the ten-year average of 19.1. If analysts cut estimates, shares become more expensive relative to profits even without a price rise.

Key factors influencing markets include:

• Earnings quality: Smaller beats leave shares more exposed to weak guidance.
• AI investment: Cloud growth must keep pace with capital spending, or technology shares could come under pressure.
• Central bank guidance: RBA and Bank of England signals on future meetings could outweigh the expected hikes.
• US politics: Changes in congressional control could alter expectations for fiscal policy and regulation.
• US employment data: Payrolls are forecast at 63,000 (previous 29,000), with unemployment steady at 4.2%.

Upcoming Events

-3 November, AUD, RBA Cash Rate: Forecast 4.85% (previous 4.60%). Guidance on further tightening could determine whether AUD gains extend.

-5 November, GBP, Bank of England Bank Rate: Forecast 4.00% (previous 3.75%). The vote split and inflation projections could drive sterling.

-6 November, USD, Non-Farm Employment Change: Forecast 63,000 (previous 29,000). Stronger hiring could support the dollar, while a weaker result could lower yields and raise growth concerns.

-6 November, USD, Unemployment Rate: Forecast 4.20% (previous 4.20%). An unexpected rise could strengthen expectations for easier policy and weigh on risk appetite.

Key Symbols to Watch

USDX | AUDUSD | GBPUSD | XAUUSD | BTCUSD

What to Watch Next

The RBA and Bank of England decisions are the first catalysts, followed by the US midterm results and Friday’s jobs report. Signals of further tightening could support AUD and sterling, while a cautious tone could cap gains. Stronger US hiring could lift yields and the dollar if traders pare back easing expectations, while weaker data could help gold through lower yields, although a sharp rise in growth concerns could also weigh on equities and Bitcoin.

For a deeper look at upcoming events and technical levels across key markets, check the full article here.