U.S.–Iran Escalates Strikes; Markets Open the Week Cautiously

ATFX Market Outlook - 20th July 2026

U.S.–Iran Escalates Strikes; Markets Open the Week Cautiously

(By ATFX Analyst Team)

Key Takeaways

U.S.–Iran conflict intensified as U.S. forces carried out their eighth consecutive night of strikes since ceasefire talks collapsed. According to LSEG shipping data, vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz declined further over the weekend. Oil prices opened higher this morning, with overall market sentiment leaning risk‑averse.

Today’s focus: Germany June PPI expected to slow to 1.8% YoY (prior 2.2%), and U.S. June Conference Board Leading Index forecast to maintain modest growth. Tonight, Canada's June CPI is expected to accelerate slightly to around 2.0% YoY, with core inflation steady near 2.2%. The data will shape expectations for Bank of Canada policy.

Global Market Review

U.S. equities extended losses Friday: Dow ‑0.93% weekly, S&P 500 ‑1.55%, Nasdaq ‑2.9%.

The dollar ended flat on Friday, down 0.2% on the week.

Spot gold rebounded by over 1% on Friday but fell ~2.5% for the week, its largest drop in over a month.

WTI crude rose more than 2% Friday, hitting highs since mid‑June as U.S.–Iran strikes escalated in the Gulf.

Key Events Today:

Japan Holiday

14:00 EU GERMANY PPI YoY JUN **

20:30 CA CPI YoY JUN **

22:00 US CB Leading Index MoM JUN **

July 21（GMT+8）

14:00 GB Unemployment Rate MAY **

17:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index JUL **

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.1459 / 1.1473

Support: 1.1414 / 1.1400

EUR/USD steadied Friday but opened lower Monday as U.S.–Iran tensions escalated.

Analyst View: Testing 10‑day MA support. A break lower would target the 20‑day MA and potentially below 1.1400.

Bias: Short‑term weak

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.3498 / 1.3537

Support: 1.3377 / 1.3339

Sterling fell for a second day on Friday. Burnham formally replaces Starmer as UK Prime Minister today, which may lend some support.

Analyst View: Watch 10‑day MA support at 1.3422. A break lower would extend the correction; holding support could refocus on 1.3500.

Bias: Short‑term weak

USDJPY

Resistance: 162.71 / 162.87

Support: 162.33 / 162.17

USD/JPY hovered near 162 on Friday, close to multi‑decade highs, with intervention risks keeping trade cautious.

Analyst View: Early Monday highs faded, but support held at the 10‑day MA. Maintaining above this level is key to staying in the high range.

Bias: High‑level consolidation

US Crude Oil Futures (SEP)

Resistance: 85.00 / 86.30

Support: 82.42 / 80.76

Oil extended gains Monday, hitting its highest level since June 12 as tensions in the Middle East threatened supply.

Analyst View: Upside opened further after a gap higher. Watch resistance above $85; fresh headlines needed to break higher.

Bias: Short‑term bullish

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Resistance: 4043 / 4073

Support: 3982 / 3943

Spot Silver (XAG/USD)

Resistance: 57.61 / 58.51

Support: 54.70 / 53.78

Gold reclaimed above $4,000 on Friday but posted its largest weekly drop in over a month. Silver fell to its lowest level since November 2025.

Analyst View: Gold opened lower on Monday, staying near last week’s lows. Daily MAs remain key resistance, keeping trade weak.

Bias: Weak trading

Dow Jones Futures

Resistance: 52,539 / 52,831

Support: 51,833 / 51,601

U.S. equities fell Friday as Middle East tensions fueled inflation risks. Dow dropped for a second day, hitting early‑month lows.

Analyst View: Breaking below key MAs, with the 20‑day MA near 52,200 now acting as resistance. Watch for further downside below 52,000.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

NASDAQ 100

Resistance: 28,993 / 29,132

Support: 28,402 / 28,225

Tech stocks fell on Friday. Apple is negotiating with the DOJ over antitrust issues, while SpaceX dropped more than 5% after a launch halt. Nasdaq fell over 1%.

Analyst View: Dropped to lows since June 9, holding above prior support. Watch for retests of the previous low.

Bias: Short‑term pressured

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Resistance: 65,576 / 66,485

Support: 63,508 / 62,584

Bitcoin recovered toward $65k on Saturday after sliding with tech stocks. Risk appetite was pressured by new developments in Chinese AI and fading hopes for U.S. crypto legislation.

Analyst View: Still consolidating near $65k. Holding the 10‑day MA is key to breaking out of the narrow range.

Bias: Range consolidation

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