Bitcoin falls below 76k, but is the bigger risk now institutional selling?

Bitcoin, together with the broader crypto market, is under pressure on Wednesday as market sentiment remains cautious amid uncertainty surrounding a U.S.-Iran deal, weak institutional demand, and ahead of tomorrow’s US inflation data.

Bitcoin trades 2% lower, down from 77.8k yesterday to 75.7k at the time of writing, while remaining within a familiar range. Major altcoins are also under pressure, with Solana and Ethereum down 0.7% and 0.7%, respectively. The total crypto market capitalisation has fallen 0.9% to $2.54 trillion.

The Middle East conflict remains the key driver for market sentiment, with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed. 

The latest developments show U.S. forces conducted missile strikes against boats and missile sites in Iran, in what Washington called a defensive move and Tehran described as a gross violation of the ceasefire.

Oil prices and inflation data in focus

Renewed geopolitical uncertainty lifted oil prices yesterday, although both Brent and WTI are falling on Wednesday, down more than 1%, with both benchmarks holding below $100 a barrel. Still, inflation concerns remain elevated, particularly after hotter-than-forecast CPI and PPI data earlier this month.

Expectations that the Fed could keep rates higher for longer continue to pressure BTC. Attention will also turn to tomorrow’s U.S. core PCE data, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, as well as comments from Fed speakers later this week for further clues on the outlook for rates. Markets are currently pricing in around a 50% chance of another rate hike this year. A more hawkish Fed would likely weigh further on risk assets.

U.S. futures point to a modestly higher open, seemingly overlooking geopolitical and inflation risks and focusing instead on continued optimism surrounding AI. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ-100 both reached fresh record highs in Tuesday’s session. 

Institutional demand weakens    

BTC ETF net outflows totalled $1.26 billion last week, marking the largest weekly outflow since December 2025. Net outflows have continued this week, with BTC ETFs recording another $333.6 million in outflows on Tuesday, adding to the reasons Bitcoin is struggling to hold ground compared to stocks.

The institutional bid that drove much of Bitcoin’s recovery from the cycle lows has not just paused — it has reversed. The latest ETF flow data suggests Wall Street is no longer buying the dip and is instead selling into strength.

BTC technical analysis    

BTC/USDT continues to trade within an ascending channel dating back to early February. However, rejection at the 200 SMA, a break below the 50 SMA, and the RSI below 50 support a near-term bearish bias.  

Bears will look to extend the move lower to the lower band of the rising channel into focus around 72.5k. Below here, downside momentum could accelerate towards 70k, the psychological level, and 65k, the April low.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the 50 SMA, at 77k. A rise above here could see buyers look to reclaim 80k, the round number and the key 200 SMA resistance. A move above 82.5k — the May high and the upper bound of the rising channel — would create a higher high and bring 85k into focus, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 126k high and 60k low. 

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