Bitcoin falls below $82K as oil prices rise and risk appetite weakens but ETF inflow jump

Bitcoin trades under pressure on Tuesday, falling below $82,000 as deteriorating risk appetite caps its recovery from last week's losses, despite a rebound in ETF demand.

Bitcoin is down 0.8% over the past 24 hours, giving back Monday's gains, when it briefly reached $83,000.

Rising oil prices and inflation concerns limit BTC upside

Bitcoin briefly retook $83,000 yesterday as falling oil prices and a recovery in tech stocks helped support risk sentiment. However, oil prices are once again moving higher today, with Brent at $110 a barrel, a five-month high, and WTI at $100 as the conflict in the Middle East continues.

Higher oil prices are fuelling inflation concerns and strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer. Higher borrowing costs tend to weigh on demand for riskier assets, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to further volatility. Markets are currently pricing in just a 15% probability of a Fed rate hike in October, but an 85% probability of a hike before the end of the year.

Slow economic calendar, US tech stock earnings in focus

The U.S. economic calendar is relatively quiet this week, with University of Michigan consumer sentiment due on Friday. Fed officials are also in their blackout period ahead of next week's key FOMC meeting. With few macroeconomic catalysts, Bitcoin may remain range-bound, leaving sentiment and institutional flows to drive near-term price action.

Attention will instead turn to tech earnings, with major names including Meta and Tesla reporting this week. These results come after a steep sell-off in semiconductor stocks last week and a sharp decline in the Nasdaq amid concerns over how the AI buildout will be financed. Meta reports tomorrow after the close, and any further concerns over elevated capital expenditure could weigh on risk sentiment more broadly, dragging on assets such as Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, Strategy announced yesterday that it had purchased 267 Bitcoin for approximately $21.1 million, signalling continued confidence in the market.

Bitcoin ETFs record largest inflows since September

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $526.6 million in net inflows yesterday, marking their largest single-day inflow in a month. This follows two consecutive weeks of net outflows. Last week, Bitcoin ETFs shed $229 million after losing $681 million the week before. 

  Yesterday's inflows have narrowed October's monthly outflows to approximately $90 million, offering some support to Bitcoin as prices come under pressure. However, sustained inflows will be needed to confirm a more durable recovery in institutional demand.

Bitcoin is down around 1.75% so far in October, typically one of its stronger months, although this follows a 42% gain in Q3.

Notably, Bitcoin is trading back above its ETF cost basis of around $81,500, according to Glassnode. It has also closed above its 50-week moving average for five consecutive weeks, with that average sitting near $76,100. Holding above these longer-term levels would help preserve the broader bullish structure.

If BTC ETF demand ramps up, it could support BTC amid rising energy prices and uncertainty around AI investment.  

BTC/USD technical analysis

Bitcoin has pulled back from its eight-month high around $87,000 to approximately $81,300. The price continues to trade above its 50 and 200 EMAs, keeping the broader outlook constructive, although momentum is weakening as the RSI slips below 50.

Sellers will need to break below the 50 EMA around $80,500 to turn the near-term outlook more bearish and bring the 200 EMA around $75,000 into focus.

Should the 50 EMA hold, buyers will look to recover above $84,000, last week's high, before attention turns back to $87,300. A break above this level would establish a higher high, bringing $90,000 and then $95,000 into focus. 

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