Bitcoin Forecast: ETF Outflows Offset Strategy Buying Ahead of CPI

Bitcoin is falling 1.5% after hitting resistance at 64k. Optimism surrounding renewed accumulation by Strategy is being offset by persistent ETF outflows and caution ahead of key U.S. inflation data later this week.

Strategy resumed its accumulation programme, purchasing 1,550 Bitcoin worth $101.3 million between June 1 and June 7 at an average price of 65.3k. The latest purchase came shortly after the company surprised investors by selling BTC in late May, marking its first BTC disposal since late 2022.

News of the purchase helped ease concerns surrounding Bitcoin after Strategy's decision to sell spooked the market. The renewed buying was partly responsible for BTC's recovery from its 2026 low below 60k.

However, despite Monday's rebound, broader sentiment towards Bitcoin remains cautious, particularly among institutional investors.

BTC ETF outflows persist, limiting BTC’s upside

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a further $91.3 million in net outflows on Monday, extending a run of four consecutive weeks of withdrawals totalling $5.4 billion. The persistence of these outflows suggests institutional investors remain reluctant to increase exposure despite the recent correction. Should the trend continue, Bitcoin could face further downside pressure.

Middle East tensions ease & inflation data is up next

Elsewhere, Iran announced yesterday that it had ended military operations against Israel. President Trump has also said that a proposal for a potential agreement with Iran could be presented within days. While these developments have helped ease concerns surrounding the Middle East conflict and pushed oil prices around 2% lower, the inflationary impact of the war, combined with stronger-than-expected U.S. labour market data, continues to support hawkish Federal Reserve expectations.

Attention is now turning to U.S. CPI data on Wednesday and PPI inflation figures on Thursday which come ahead of next week's FOMC meeting. Expectations are for inflation to rise further from the Fed’s 2% target, which could reinforce expectations that the central bank may need to keep policy tighter for longer or potentially raise rates later this year.

For Bitcoin, the key issue is liquidity. Higher interest rates often reduce capital flows into speculative assets, making it harder for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies to sustain rallies.

While the fundamental backdrop remains challenging, the technical picture is becoming increasingly important. Bitcoin is currently testing a key support zone, the 200-week moving average, which, if it holds, could provide a platform for a broader recovery. However, a decisive break lower could expose the market to a deeper correction and fresh lows for the year.

BTC technical analysis (weekly)

Bitcoin is testing the 200 SMA on the weekly chart, a level that has historically acted as a bottom zone during the 2015, 2018, and 2020 bear markets. The RSI has risen from oversold territory, forming a higher high and a bullish RSI divergence, suggesting selling pressure may be losing strength ahead of a rebound.  

Should the recovery gather upside momentum, the first major target is the 50 SMA near 91,750, which has often acted as dynamic resistance during recovery attempts.  

Looking at the daily chart, ahead of 91.7k, the near-term upside targets are 65k (the April low), 73k (the lower band of the rising channel), and 78k (the 200 SMA).

Meanwhile, a break below the 200-week SMA could be significant, potentially sparking a deeper move back towards 50K.

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