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Bitcoin Market Research - Whale Distribution Signals a Bearish Cycle
Hereby, we’ll post a scenario forecast to the end of February.
Currently, BTC holds these key technical levels:
Resistance Zones
~$67,800 - $69,300. It was a former support, we see a large red candle breaking it on H4.~$72,000 - $73,500. It is a major distribution area. A reclaim above this zone would be required to invalidate the bearish structure. In the meantime, this is the unlikely variant.
Support Zones
~$61,500 - $60,000. It looks like short-term support. If the retail traders keep buying dips in this area, it might become vulnerable.~$57,000 - $55,000. This level looks like another target for liquidations. But should the price go below $50,000, there would be a huge panic around the retail segment.
1️⃣ Our Base Case (most likely 60%) anticipates that the price might grind lower with volatile bounces. It might break below $60,000. Then test the $55,000 area
👉 And this is where the real bottom signals might start forming.
2️⃣ 25% favors the Bearish Extension.
In this case we presume that macro risk-off sentiment accelerates. Bitcoin will drop toward $52,000 - $50,000 zone fast, followed by the sharp liquidation avalanche.
👉 In this case the reached level might serve as a long-term entry zone
3️⃣ And the Bullish Alternative currently takes the rest 15%.
The market will face a huge short squeeze, caused by the positive geopolitical news or shifts in macroeconomics. The rally will be a sort of “relief” but will be capped below ~$70,000.
Anyway, currently we cannot wait for the reversal phase to begin. All the bounces might be just corrective and speculative.
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