Bitcoin Rises Towards $64K as Risk Sentiment Improves – What's Next?

Bitcoin is rising towards 64k on Tuesday, recovering from modest losses in the previous session as improving risk sentiment and stronger institutional demand offset mixed messages surrounding U.S.-Iran peace talks and further Bitcoin sales from Strategy. The largest cryptocurrency trades 1.2% higher over the past 24 hours. BTC is outperforming other major altcoins, with Ethereum up just 0.4% over the same period.

Risk sentiment & ETF inflows support BTC

The move higher comes amid improving risk sentiment across broader financial markets. The Nasdaq closed 2% higher yesterday, while the Dow Jones reached a record high. U.S. futures are also pointing higher today.

The improvement in sentiment came after data showed an acceleration in U.S. manufacturing activity in July, helped by massive spending on AI infrastructure. Optimism surrounding the AI boom has also been supported by strong quarterly results from hyperscalers such as Microsoft and Amazon, as well as Palantir's 15% jump after reporting sharp growth in U.S. commercial sales.

The improvement in tech sentiment is helping BTC, although the recent relationship between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq has been relatively weak, suggesting that equities alone may not be enough to drive a sustained breakout.

Institutional demand is also showing signs of improving. According to SoSoValue data, BTC ETFs recorded $170.09 million in net inflows on Monday after posting net outflows of $61.53 million last week. Persistent inflows will be needed for BTC to stage a more meaningful recovery. 

  Headwinds remain

However, headwinds could limit the upside for Bitcoin. Mixed messages from the U.S. and Iran surrounding peace talks have lifted oil prices on Tuesday, together with inflation concerns. Higher energy prices could reignite inflationary pressures and push the Fed towards a more hawkish stance, which is typically bad news for BTC.

Separately, Strategy has sold more Bitcoin. The Bitcoin treasury company sold 1,638 BTC, worth around $104.7 million, with the proceeds used to fund distributions on its preferred stock and repurchase shares of STRC.

US NFP report is a key focus

Looking ahead, markets will continue to monitor U.S.-Iran developments, oil prices and U.S. economic data. Friday's NFP report could be pivotal and bring some clarity to the Fed rate outlook after some confusion from last week's FOMC meeting.

A stronger NFP could rlift September rate hike expectations and weigh on BTC, while another weak jobs report could pull yields and the dollar lower, potentially helping Bitcoin extend its recovery.

Bitcoin technical analysis

BTC/USDT trades below its 50-, 100- and 200-day EMAs, in a bearish bias. The recent failure to reclaim the 50 EMA reinforces this bearish outlook, although support at 62.5K, the mid-July low, is holding for now.

Sellers will need to break below 62.5K to extend the decline towards 60K, the psychological level, and 57.7K, the 2026 low. A move below 57.7K would create a lower low, bringing 55K and 50K, levels last seen in 2024, into focus.

On the upside, Bitcoin needs to reclaim the 50 EMA at 64.5K and break above 67.5K, where the 100 EMA converges with the June swing high. A move above this resistance zone creates a higher high and would expose the 200 EMA at 73K. Above here, the outlook is more constructive. 

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