Bitcoin surges above 70k as US–Iran ceasefire sparks risk rally

Bitcoin has jumped more than 4% to a three-week high after the US and Iran agreed to an initial two-week ceasefire, sparking a sharp improvement in global risk sentiment.

The largest cryptocurrency rose as much as 4.9% to a peak of $72.7K — its highest level since March 18 — before easing slightly to trade around $71.7K at the time of writing. Altcoins are also posting strong gains, with Ether rising as much as 7% to around $2,270. The total cryptocurrency market capitalisation is up 4.2% to $2.44 trillion.

Ceasefire lifts sentiment across asset classes

The move higher comes after President Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East, fuelling hopes that oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz could begin to normalise. The market reaction has been swift and broad-based.

Oil prices have dropped 15%, falling back below $100 per barrel, while the S&P 500 futures have jumped 2% and European equities are trading around 5% higher. Treasury yields are also moving lower as inflation concerns begin to ease.

Why falling oil and yields matter for Bitcoin

The decline in oil prices matters because it reduces fears of an inflation shock tied to the conflict. Lower oil prices ease pressure on inflation expectations, which in turn can pull Treasury yields lower and reduce the risk that the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates restrictive for longer.

Markets are now pricing in close to a 50/50 chance that the Fed cuts rates by the end of the year — a notable shift from the more hawkish pricing seen during the peak of the conflict. That is supportive for Bitcoin, which tends to perform better in lower-rate environments where liquidity is more abundant and investor appetite for risk improves.

What needs to happen next?

For the rally to extend, markets will need to see that negotiations continue to progress over the coming two weeks and that a more durable resolution is possible.

The key focus will remain on the Strait of Hormuz. It will not be enough for a ceasefire to simply exist on paper. Markets will need evidence that insurers, shipping operators and energy traders are confident enough to return traffic through the strait towards normal levels. That would be a stronger signal that the energy shock is genuinely fading. Without that, the current rally could still prove fragile.

For now, Bitcoin is benefiting from the same macro forces lifting broader risk assets — but whether this becomes a true breakout depends on whether de-escalation turns into something more durable.

BTC technical analysis   

BTC/USD trades amid a longer-term downtrend, which could change if the near-term bullish move gains momentum. The price trades within a rising channel dating back to the start of February. Having recovered from the 65k low, BTC rose above the 50 SMA to a 3-week high of 72.7k, the late-March high. The RSI is also above 50, keeping buyers hopeful of further gains.

Buyers will look to extend the rebound above 72k to 74k, the mid-point of the rising channel and the falling trendline dating back to October. A rise above here and the 76k March high brings the focus to 80k, the November low. Above here, the price is on a firmer footing.

Support is seen at 69k, the confluence of the 50 SMA and the lower band of the rising channel. Below here, 65k comes into focus, the March low. Should sellers take out this support, 60k comes into play, the 2026 low. 

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