Bitcoin tests $70K as rising yields and weak data weigh on sentiment

Bitcoin has failed to hold earlier gains, falling back to $70K as the broader market mood remains fragile and Treasury yields continue to rise.

BTC is down around 1% over the past 24 hours. Altcoins are also under pressure, with Ethereum and Solana falling 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively.

Despite a positive start to the session, sentiment has weakened amid conflicting signals around de-escalation in the Iran conflict, softer US economic data, and a continued rise in Treasury yields towards what some consider a “danger zone.”

PMI data signals stagflation risk

US PMI data pointed to a worsening growth–inflation balance, with economic activity slowing while price pressures build.

Manufacturing PMI rose from 51.6 to 52.4, but services PMI fell to 51.1 — an 11-month low — from 51.7. The composite PMI, a broad gauge of business activity, dropped to 51.4 from 51.9, marking its weakest level in nearly a year.

Beneath the surface, demand is weakening amid rising uncertainty, while inflationary pressures are intensifying as a result of higher energy prices— a combination that points towards a stagflationary backdrop.

Treasury yields approach key risk level

Following the data, US Treasury yields moved higher, with the 10-year yield rising 4bps to 4.386%.

Yields have climbed sharply since the start of the conflict, rising around 45 basis points and approaching levels that have previously triggered a change of stance from the White House. Historically, moves towards the 4.5%–4.6% range have unnerved the Trump administration. Looking back to April 2025, when yields breached this level, President Trump pulled reciprocal tariffs amid concerns over tightening financial conditions.

Higher yields typically weigh on Bitcoin and other non-yielding assets such as gold, as they increase the opportunity cost of holding them. At the same time, rising yields tend to support the US dollar, further tightening global liquidity conditions.

This combination — higher yields, a stronger dollar, and tighter liquidity — creates a key headwind for crypto markets. While BTC has shown resilience since the start of the war, BTC could find that gains are limited if yields keep rising.

Macro pressures building

Rising yields also weigh on broader asset valuations, reducing investor appetite for risk. Gold has already shown how sensitive assets can be to this shift, falling sharply despite ongoing geopolitical tensions — a sign that liquidity is currently overriding traditional safe-haven dynamics. If Treasury yields continue to rise, Bitcoin could come under similar pressure.

At the same time, oil prices are rising again as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, adding to inflation concerns and reinforcing the upward pressure on yields.

Outlook: macro & headlines still in control

Markets continue to react to headlines around the Middle East conflict, but without clear evidence of de-escalation, it is difficult to see yields easing or risk appetite improving in a sustained way.

However, sentiment could shift quickly. Any credible signs of de-escalation — particularly a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz or stabilisation in oil prices — could see yields fall and liquidity return to risk assets.  For now, rising yields remain the key constraint — and upside in BTC could be limited as long as this dynamic persists.

Bitcoin technical analysis

Bitcoin’s long-term trend remains bearish. However, this could shift should BTC’s recent recovery gain momentum. BTC has recovered from its 2026 low of 59.5k, and the near-term trend is bullish. BTC has been trading in an ascending channel since mid-February. The price recovered from the lower band of the channel and has retaken the 50 SMA, testing 71k resistance.  

Buyers, supported by the RSI above 50, will look to extend gains to test 76k, the March high and 23.6% Fib retracement of the 126.6k high and 59.5k low.  Above here, attention turns to the 80k, the November low, and a round number. A rise above here and 85k puts BTC's longer-term outlook on a firmer footing.

On the downside, sellers will need to break below the 50 SMA at 69k and the lower band of the rising channel at 67k, to break down towards 65k and 60k. 

Read more from PrimeXBT

Disclaimer: The content provided here is for informational purposes only and is not intended as personal investment advice and does not constitute a solicitation or invitation to engage in any financial transactions, investments, or related activities. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The financial products offered by the Company are complex and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. These products may not be suitable for all investors. Before engaging, you should consider whether you understand how these leveraged products work and whether you can afford the high risk of losing your money. The Company does not accept clients from the Restricted Jurisdictions as indicated on its website / T&Cs. Some products and services, including MT5, may not be available in your jurisdiction. The applicable legal entity and its respective products and services depend on the client’s country of residence and the entity with which the client has established a contractual relationship during registration.