Can Bitcoin stabilise amid oil spikes and rising Treasury yields?

Bitcoin is falling on Thursday, tracking broader risk assets lower after President Trump signalled a potential escalation in the war with Iran over the coming weeks.

BTC is down around 3%, falling to $66K, while Ethereum has declined more than 4.5% as it moves back towards the $2,000 level. The total cryptocurrency market capitalisation is down 3% to $2.29 trillion.

Escalation fears replace de-escalation hopes

In an address to the nation on Wednesday evening, President Trump said the war could end within two to three weeks, citing progress towards US military objectives. However, he also warned that Iran would be hit “extremely hard” in the coming weeks. Trump also reiterated the possibility of strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure if the country fails to accept a deal.

Rather than focusing on the 2-3 weeks that had brought the market some optimism earlier this week, markets are now focusing on the escalation risk. The comments reversed earlier optimism around de-escalation and instead fuelled fears of more intense military action.

Oil and yields drive the selloff

Following the speech, oil prices jumped more than 7%, adding to inflation concerns. Treasury yields are also rising as markets reassess the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer.

This is key for Bitcoin.

Rising oil prices feed into inflation expectations, which push yields higher. Higher yields tighten financial conditions, strengthen the US dollar, and reduce the appeal of growth stocks and non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin.

As a result, both crypto and equities are under pressure. US stock markets have opened around 1.5% lower, with growth stocks (the Nasdaq) leading the move lower. These moves reinforce the point that Bitcoin is currently trading in line with broader macro sentiment.

NFP in focus as macro risks build

Alongside developments in the Middle East, attention is now turning to Friday’s non-farm payroll report.

With US equity markets closed, the release could trigger increased volatility in cryptocurrency markets.

Expectations are for job creation to rebound after a decline of 92,000 in February, with forecasts pointing to a gain of around 48,000 jobs.

The data comes at a sensitive time. A combination of rising inflation pressures — driven by higher energy prices — and a weakening labour market would create a stagflationary backdrop, complicating the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

On the other hand, a stronger-than-expected NFP report could reinforce inflation concerns and push yields higher, increasing expectations for tighter policy — a scenario that would likely weigh further on Bitcoin.

On-chain data points to caution

According to CryptoQuant, apparent demand — which measures whether demand is exceeding or falling short of newly mined Bitcoin supply — stood at -63,000 BTC at the end of last month. Whale activity is also showing less conviction. After accumulating around 200,000 Bitcoin in 2024, whales began distributing mid-2025, accelerating the selloff towards the end of the year. Typically, negative whale accumulation has coincided with periods of weakness in BTC.  

Whale sales remain a structural headwind even as institutional demand shows signs of recovering. BTC ETFs booked net inflows of $1.2 billion in March after 5 straight months of net inflows.  

Bitcoin technical analysis   BTC recovered from the 2026 low of 60k, rising to a March high of 76k in a potential bear flag pattern. The price rebounded lower from 76k, breaking below the 50 SMA and the lower band of the channel to 65k support. A recent rejection of the 50 SMA resistance reinforces the bearish bias.

Sellers will need to break below 65k to open the door to a deeper selloff towards 60k.

For a recovery, the first upside test would be at 69k, the 50 SMA, and the lower band of the rising channel. Above here 76k, the March high and the 23.6% Fib retracement of the 126.6k high and the 60k low as well as the falling trendline. 

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