​EBC Markets Briefing | Aussie dollar falls after CPI report; gold tanked

The Australian dollar edged down on Wednesday as investors awaited a closely watched Fed rate decision. Currencies held tight ranges in thinned Asia trade, with a slew of major central bank decisions still on deck.

Consumer prices surged in Q1, marking its highest level in more than two years, while core inflation was also unfavourably high. Even so, both figures fell short of forecasts.

Markets trimmed the odds of a third interest-rate rise from the RBA in May to 76%, with a total tightening of 62 bps priced in for the ⁠rest of the year. Policymakers have raised interest rates twice in 2026.

Recently, PM Albanese has negotiated with Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Japan and South Korea, all of which supply Australia with either petrol, diesel oil or fertiliser and to all of which Australia supplies gas.

Profits at China's industrial firms jumped 15.8% from a year earlier in March, the sharpest growth since September. The AI and semiconductor boom contributed to the upswing, as well as demand for intelligent products.

Australia's trade surplus more than doubled in February, hitting the highest level since July 2025. The exports will likely remain supported as the world's manufacturing powerhouse showed resilience.

The Aussie dollar notched a new recent high earlier this month, a sign that the bullish run may continue. If the 50 SMA holds, we expect it to climb to 0.72 and beyond.

Asset recap

As of market close on 28 April, among EBC major products, Packaging Corp of America shares led gains after UBS raised its price target on them from $225 to $232 while maintaining a "neutral" rating.

Applied Materials dropped sharply, following a Reuters report that the US Commerce Department last week ordered certain chip equipment makers to stop sending some tools to Hua Hong.

Gold prices sank to their lowest levels in nearly a month as the US dollar firmed. Still Deutsche Bank ran a simulation that projects gold prices to hit $8,000 an ounce within five years.

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