​EBC Markets Briefing | DAX in the red; oil prices still elevated

European shares extended losses on Thursday as oil prices touched $100 a barrel earlier in the session, which brought concerns about inflation amid the war in the Middle East to the forefront again.

The US temporarily authorized the purchase of Russian oil stranded at sea to stabilize energy markets. The EU has committed to phasing out all remaining oil imports from Russia by the end of 2027.

Money markets were pricing in a ECB rate hike by July, with an 87% probability of another increase by December, as per data compiled by LSEG. That could hinder the already shaky recovery.

Deutsche Bank upgraded the European technology sector to "neutral" from "underweight" on Tuesday, saying the months-long rout sparked by fears of AI-driven disruption may have run its course.

The bank also highlighted opportunities in Germany's cyclical sectors including industrials and materials, which slumped in recent days despite what it ⁠sees as intact support from Berlin's fiscal push.

The ifo Business Climate Index rose to 88.6 points in February 2026, up from 87.6 in January. However, a full-on conflict in the Middle East will likely significantly dent business sentiment.

The DAX 40 was trading at its lowest level in months, with another leg lower is underway. If energy costs remain high, a retest of 23,300 seems inevitable in the near term.

Asset recap

As of market close on 12 March, among EBC major products, US West Texas Oil led gains after Mojtaba Khamenei said that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz should be continued as a "tool to pressure the enemy".

Schlumberger shares came under pressure after the company warned that Middle East disruptions have forced it to suspend some travel, scale back certain operations, and activate crisis-response teams to manage the fallout.

South Korea's chip industry is concerned that a prolonged Iranian crisis will disrupt supplies of key ‌materials and increase chip prices as a result ‌of a spike in energy costs, a ruling party lawmaker said.

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