EBC Markets Briefing | Swiss franc awaits US-Iran negotiation outcome

The Swiss franc was directionless on Tuesday as traders ​walked back expectations of near-term monetary tightening, although the imminent threat of an escalation in the Middle East war left ‌sentiment fragile.

The 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level in 19 years as oil prices rose, with worries growing among investors about persistent inflation and government borrowing.

Strategists at Barclays see the rise in rates are more about the ballooning budget deficit, high levels of issuance related to AI competing with Treasurys, and higher term premiums.

Iran will shift to a "fully offensive" military ​posture because the ongoing peace talk has stalled. Trump said the US would not seek to extend June's interim agreement, making a deal more unlikely.

Switzerland's economy grew by 1.5% in Q2, marking its fastest quarterly growth since 2021. Industry provided the biggest boost, led by the chemicals and pharmaceuticals sector.

The SNB warned that fresh conflict could damage global supply chains and slow down economic expansion. But the Swiss franc turns out to be weak amid the oil crisis, which may help prop up low inflation.

EBC Financial Group says that the currency showed bullish MACD divergence, indicating that the selling pressure was drying up. The support may lie around 0.8110 per dollar.

Asset Recap

As of market close on 17 August, among EBC major products, Applied Materials shares led gains after Bloomberg reported that Anthropic told prospective investors its Q2 revenue jumped more than 14-fold.

Constellation Brands was the biggest decliner in the S&P 500 Index after Berkshire Hathaway sold its stake of over 630K shares during the previous quarter without any statement.

South Korean stocks entered a new technical bull market after an unprecedented summer crash. This second wave is noticeably healthier, built on real demand rather than explosive retail debt.

A portfolio diagnostic is critical to managing tail risk. EBC Turbo leverages a proprietary scoring model to run a six-dimensional analytics scan within 5 seconds, mapping your risk-return dynamics and decoding your trading DNA.

EBC Financial Group Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC Global Financial Collaboration or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.