Gold Drops Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Forecasts Shift

US President Donald Trump dismissed any further delays to tariff hikes set for 1 August, announcing additional aggressive measures. These include a 50% duty on copper imports, potential 200% tariffs on pharmaceuticals, and a 10% levy on goods from BRICS nations.

Another key factor weighing on gold was the neutral Fed outlook regarding a rate cut in July. Last week’s strong US jobs report alleviated fears of an economic slowdown, reducing expectations of imminent monetary easing.

The new tariffs could exacerbate inflationary pressures in the US, potentially limiting the Fed’s room for future rate reductions.

Investors are now awaiting the June FOMC meeting minutes, due later today, for further clues on the central bank’s policy direction.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

The XAU/USD pair is forming the fifth wave of a downward structure, targeting 3,233. Upon completion, a corrective wave towards 3,344 may follow before a potential resumption of declines to 3,121. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero and trending sharply downward.

H1 Chart:

The pair has established a downward wave to 3,286, followed by a tight consolidation range near 3,296. Today, we anticipate a drop to 3,282, followed by a retest of 3,296 (from below). A breakout below this range could extend losses towards 3,247 – a near-term target. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, with its signal line sitting below 50 and trending downward towards 20.

Conclusion

Gold remains under pressure amid shifting Fed expectations and trade uncertainties. A bearish technical structure suggests further downside potential unless key support levels hold.

DisclaimerAny forecasts contained herein are based on the author's particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.