Gold Drops to 3,273 USD as Markets Await Trade Deal Developments

Key factors driving gold’s movement

The primary reason for the decline is positive signals regarding trade talks between the US and China, which have reduced the demand for safe-haven assets.

Negotiations between representatives of the two countries concluded over the weekend, and the results offer some grounds for optimism. Beijing announced plans to initiate formal talks, while Washington reported progress towards an agreement.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that he could provide further details at a full briefing on Monday. Today's developments are expected to generate significant market reactions.

Geopolitically, the ceasefire between India and Pakistan remained in place until Sunday, despite mutual accusations of violations shortly after its conclusion.

Earlier, additional pressure on gold came from statements made by the Federal Reserve. The regulator warned of rising inflation and risks within the labour market. At the same time, Chairman Jerome Powell ruled out the possibility of a pre-emptive rate cut in response to tariff threats.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD has formed a consolidation range around the 3,322 level. Today, we expect a possible decline to 3,195. After reaching this target, a correction to the 3,255 level is possible. Upon completing this correction, a new wave of decline to the local target of 3,070 may follow. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, as its signal line is below the zero level and is pointed decisively downwards.

On the H1 chart, XAU/USD has broken below the 3,290 level and continues to move towards 3,235. This target level will likely be reached today. A corrective move towards the 3,322 level cannot be ruled out. Subsequently, a decline to at least 3,200 is expected. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator; its signal line is below the 80 level and is directed steadily downwards towards the 20 level.

Conclusion

Gold remains under pressure amid improving trade sentiment and hawkish commentary from the Fed, with technical indicators pointing to further downside potential. Traders will be closely watching today’s briefing for any new market-moving details.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author's particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.