Gold finds footing above 4,500 but upside still limited
Overview: Gold is consolidating within its fresh 4,450-4,600 range, with losses contained above the 200-day SMA and gains capped by the 20-day SMA. Despite this stabilisation, the mild bearish bias persists as price remains within a downward sloping channel intact since mid April.Momentum: Momentum indicators are subdued, with the RSI and MACD flattening in negative territory, though a slight uptick is emerging.Bullish scenario: A bullish shift would require clearing the heavy SMA cluster overhead, with an initial move above the 38.2% Fibo near 4,600, enveloped by the 20- and 50-day SMAs, followed by the 100-day SMA near 4,800 - a breach of which would signal stronger upside potential.Risk: A break below the 200-day SMA near 4,410 would invalidate the current consolidation and dim upside hopes, exposing further downside toward 4,350.
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